Sheng Peng
Five years ago, the course of San Jose Sharks history changed.
On Sept. 13, 2018, the Sharks acquired two-time Norris Trophy winner Erik Karlsson, then 28, along with prospect Francis Perron, from the Ottawa Senators for Chris Tierney and Dylan DeMelo, prospects Josh Norris and Rudolfs Balcers, a 2019 second-round pick (Jamieson Rees), and a 2020 first-round pick (Tim Stutzle). After San Jose re-signed Karlsson to an eight-year, $92 million contract that summer, they also sent Ottawa a 2021 second-round pick (Zack Ostapchuk).
Karlsson’s much-heralded tenure in teal was marked by dazzling highs and dramatic lows.
In his first year, he helped lead the star-laden San Jose Sharks to the 2019 Western Conference Finals. Last season, the 33-year-old won his third Norris Trophy, becoming the first defenseman since Brian Leetch in 1991-92 to eclipse 100 points.
On the other hand, his production dropped precipitously from 2019 to 2022, and the Sharks followed suit, missing the playoffs in those years. Two of those three Karlsson campaigns were also cut short by injury. And even last year, despite his renaissance, San Jose stumbled to the fourth-worst record in the NHL.
Last month, the Sharks traded Karlsson to the Pittsburgh Penguins, in a three-team deal that also involved the Montreal Canadiens. In exchange for Karlsson and retaining $1.5 million AAV of the remaining four years of his contract, San Jose acquired a top-10 protected 2024 first-round pick from Pittsburgh, along with veterans Mikael Granlund, Jan Rutta, and Mike Hoffman.
Anyway, enough with the history lesson.
Let’s talk alternate history.
Specifically, Erik Karlsson’s, when it comes to the Sharks. San Jose Hockey Now has heard some interesting things over the years, now’s the time to share some of it.
Here are five Karlsson/Sharks inflection points, five what-ifs.
What If Sharks Had Traded for Karlsson During 2018 Trade Deadline?
Before San Jose dealt for Karlsson on the eve of the 2018-19 campaign, trade rumors dogged the star defenseman throughout the previous season.
Ottawa knew they were likely to lose Karlsson in the summer of 2019, and so they made him available, dangling not one, but two playoff runs with Karlsson to prospective suitors before he hit unrestricted free agency.
The Sharks and GM Doug Wilson were very interested.
In the years since, SJHN has learned that San Jose was serious about Karlsson trade talks even back to the 2017-18 season.
Wilson said as much in 2018. According to the Hockey News, “Karlsson, 28, was actually the Sharks’ target before [John Tavares in free agency], even superseding Evander Kane.”
That Trade Deadline, the Sharks acquired troubled-but-talented winger Kane. That summer, they went for the biggest catch in free agency, Tavares.
Would a Karlsson 2018 Trade Deadline deal have taken the Sharks out of the Kane and Tavares sweepstakes?
Not necessarily, but I’ll get into that next.
Anyway, you figure the Sharks would’ve have had to surrender more to get two playoff runs from Karlsson before he became a UFA, instead of the one.
On the other hand, San Jose, with Karlsson, would’ve been a mighty tough out during the 2018 playoffs.
Without Karlsson, they were eventual Western Conference champs Vegas Golden Knights’ stiffest test in the first three rounds of the playoffs. The Golden Knights swept through the Los Angeles 4-0 in the first round, pulled out a 4-2 slugfest against San Jose in the second round, and grounded the Winnipeg Jets 4-1 in the Western Conference Finals, before falling to the Washington Capitals in the Stanley Cup Final.
Would Karlsson, in his prime, have turned the tide for the Sharks against the Golden Knights?
What If Sharks Had Signed John Tavares?
The Senators held Karlsson for the entirety of the 2017-18 season, so that summer, the Sharks turned their attention to the premier UFA on the market, John Tavares.
The Sharks were a finalist for Tavares, and it was rumored that they offered him more than $13 million a year. Tavares, 28, took $11 million AAV from his hometown Toronto Maple Leafs for the max-allowed seven years.
If Tavares had signed with San Jose, the assumption is that the Sharks wouldn’t have pursued Karlsson anymore.
But knowing Wilson’s penchant for the big swing, perhaps he would’ve gone all-in on Karlsson too, making just $6.5 million AAV during the 2018-19 season, and let the chips fall where they may during the star blueliner’s free agency.
It’s not likely, of course, practically.
What I do know is that the Sharks, like many other NHL teams, expected the cap to rise significantly in the coming years at that time. I suspect the Sharks had game-planned a scenario where they could’ve kept both Tavares and Karlsson long-term.
No one could predict the COVID pandemic in 2020, the subsequent loss in revenue, and the basically flat cap for essentially the last four years.
What Would It Have Cost the Sharks To Protect the Stutzle Pick?
It’s easy to forget now, but the Senators’ return for Karlsson in Sept. 2018 was universally panned.
The centerpieces of the trade, Josh Norris and the conditional first-round pick, weren’t seen as necessarily high-end pieces.
Norris, at that point, wasn’t thought of as a future 30-goal scorer. Everybody assumed that the unprotected first-round pick would be a late one, given that the Sharks were expected to contend for the years to come.
Of course, that’s not what happened.
After San Jose’s surprisingly putrid 2019-20 campaign, Ottawa ended up with the third-overall selection of the Draft, picking Stutzle, who put up 90 points last season, just his third NHL campaign.
The question that has haunted San Jose Sharks fans since then, why didn’t the Sharks protect the pick?
“We obviously asked them to protect the pick,” then-director of scouting Doug Wilson Jr. told me in 2020, “but it would’ve come at a cost.”
He added: “They’re trading the best defenseman in the NHL and they’re not even getting a first-round pick in that exact draft year. To try to protect a first-rounder two years out, when you’re trading for Erik Karlsson?”
The farther out the pick, the less value that it tends to have.
“We asked many times to do it. So we pushed it to 2020, but we couldn’t get it protected. That would’ve cost us another asset,” Wilson Jr. said. “With trades, you just do the best you can at the time with all the information that you have. I don’t remember when we made the trade, anybody upset about giving up the first.”
It’s a tough pill for Sharks fans to swallow, but that’s the truth. Find me anybody who was worried about that 2020 pick in Sept. 2018, when San Jose landed the biggest fish in the market.
Like the rest of the hockey world, the Sharks didn’t expect to find themselves in the cellar so quickly, so they took a reasonable chance that backfired spectacularly.
For what it’s worth, according to the Hockey News, at that time, the Sharks’ top-five prospects were, in order, Norris, Ryan Merkley, Dylan Gambrell, Mario Ferraro, and Balcers.
Obviously, Norris and Balcers were included in the Karlsson trade. And course, hindsight is easy, the No. 3 pick is worth more than any one of Merkley, Gambrell, or Ferraro, who were all highly valued back then by the organization.
Wilson ushered in 15 years of success for the Sharks with big-game trades for Joe Thornton and Dan Boyle, among others, but he was bound to have one blow up in his face at some time.
What If Karlsson Didn’t Hurt His Groin the Second Time?
Karlsson got off to a slow start with the Sharks, but by December, he was arguably the best player in the world once again.
In a 21-game stretch in 2018-19, from Dec. 2 to Jan. 15, Karlsson registered 27 points and the Sharks went 16-3-2. He was first over the boards to shut down stars like Connor McDavid and Nikita Kucherov at home during this stretch.
But then, Karlsson suffered a groin injury on Jan. 16. He missed a month, then came back on Feb. 16 against the Vancouver Canucks.
But he was never the same, especially after he re-aggravated the groin injury on Feb. 18 against the Boston Bruins.
After Feb. 18, Karlsson appeared in just four more regular season games. On what seemed like one leg at times, Karlsson did manage 16 points in 19 playoff games, before re-aggravating his groin injury in the Western Conference Finals and being forced to sit out Game Six, as the St. Louis Blues eliminated the Sharks.
Again, hindsight is easy. Karlsson was healthy-enough before the Boston game, and he wanted badly to come back. It’s the nature of an athlete to want to play, right? In the Bruins game, Karlsson left twice, so perhaps the Sharks should’ve stopped him from coming back the second time.
There’s no telling if that’s what changed the trajectory of Karlsson’s season though, it could’ve well been the first groin injury in mid-January. Soft-tissue injuries are tricky to judge.
In my mind, it’s the great what-if of Karlsson’s time in San Jose, so much so that I asked Logan Couture about it recently.
A healthy Karlsson might’ve been enough to lead the Sharks over the Blues and take home the Stanley Cup.
Instead, Karlsson couldn’t finish the playoffs and had groin surgery in May.
What If Karlsson Had Left in Free Agency?
The San Jose Sharks saw enough from Karlsson in 2018-19, however, to ink him to an eight-year, $92 million contract, making him the highest-paid defenseman in the league.
But what if Karlsson had tested free agency and signed elsewhere?
The easy assumption is that would’ve freed up money to re-sign Joe Pavelski, who was a UFA. Instead, the beloved Sharks captain went to the Dallas Stars for three years and $21 million.
But Wilson and the San Jose organization back then, as noted, were always chasing the big fish, so I’m not so sure about that.
Again, hindsight is easy. Pavelski has been terrific in Dallas, pretty much just as good as he was in San Jose.
But back in the summer of 2019, there was some internal debate in the Sharks organization about Pavelski’s lasting power.
It was a fair question back then: Pavelski was 34, usually an age that you really worry about a player’s decline. As recently as the year before, Pavelski scored just 22 goals, his lowest full-season mark since 2010-11. The centerman had also already began a transition to the wing.
And while Pavelski enjoyed a comeback 38-goal contract year, he also battled through a serious knee injury and concussion that season.
The big fish that summer in free agency was 27-year-old winger Artemi Panarin, who signed with the New York Rangers for seven years and $81.5 million.
It’s certainly conceivable, sans Karlsson, that the Sharks would’ve put their hat in the ring.
Perhaps, Wilson would’ve filled the hypothetical loss of Karlsson via trade. That season, 2018 Hart Trophy winner Taylor Hall was traded from the New Jersey Devils to the Arizona Coyotes.
Or Wilson could’ve focused on other younger-than-Pavelski options at key positions like center and defense.
But knowing the Sharks’ M.O., I think it’s fair to say that they would’ve been big-game hunting to replace Karlsson, which wouldn’t necessarily have included franchise heartbeat Pavelski.