San Jose Sharks
Which UFA Centers Should Sharks Target?

Doug Wilson couldn’t have been clearer in his exit interview.
“The 3C spot,” Wilson said last month, “certainly we have to look at and explore.”
Exit Interview: Doug Wilson Plans to Add 3C, Address Goaltending | SJHN+
It’s a good off-season for the San Jose Sharks to do that: There’s a relatively-deep class of middle-six centermen in free agency this summer.
San Jose Hockey Now spoke with three NHL scouts and identified 17 potential UFAs — some more likely than others — who might be able to play third-line center for the Sharks next year.
David Krejci and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins will likely be too expensive (and too good) for a 3C role in San Jose.
Phillip Danault, Mikael Granlund, Alex Wennberg, Nick Foligno, Tyler Bozak, Nick Bonino, and Barclay Goodrow might be more realistic targets to skate 3C with the San Jose Sharks — though the cost will vary.
Paul Stastny and Ryan Getzlaf are fading stars who can still help a team in a top-nine role.
Carl Soderberg, Derick Brassard, Derek Stepan, Travis Zajac, and Brandon Sutter appear to be reaches for this high-leverage job.
Before we get to what the scouts think — we’ll hear more from them next week — let’s look at some interesting numbers from this group of centers.
- Per Evolving Hockey, Bonino, Sutter, Zajac (in New Jersey), Foligno (in Columbus), and Bozak experienced the highest percentage of Defensive Zone Faceoffs at 5-on-5. Danault and Haula were also up there. On the flip side, Krejci, Zajac (in New York), Nugent-Hopkins, Granlund, and Stastny benefitted from the highest percentage of Offensive Zone Faceoffs.
- Seven centers here averaged more than 13 minutes a night at 5-on-5: Nugent-Hopkins, Stastny, Krejci, Foligno, Granlund, Getzlaf, and Danault.
- Buyer beware on the 27-year-old Nugent-Hopkins? He averaged just 1.06 Points Per 60 at 5-on-5. This was the second-lowest mark among all eligible centers. This, despite Connor McDavid being Nugent-Hopkins’s most common teammate at 5-on-5. 57% of Nugent Hopkins’s 35 points came off the power play, where he played mostly with McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. 1.06, by the way, is considered fourth-line production. For what it’s worth, from 2017-20, Nugent-Hopkins averaged a healthy 1.96 Points Per 60 at 5-on-5.
- Foligno (in Columbus) was last in this group with a dismal 0.85 Points Per 60 at 5-on-5.
- Only two of these pivots averaged one or more Primary Assists Per 60 at 5-on-5: Krejci (1.22) and Danault (1.1). Danault had a tough offensive season, on the balance, but that’s a promising figure.
- Zajac, Krejci, Bonino, Danault, Granlund, Bozak, Wennberg, and Stastny are the only centermen in this group to average 1.5 or more Points Per 60 at 5-on-5.
- Brassard is the only center here who averaged less than one shot block Per 60 at 5-on-5: That probably won’t play in San Jose.
- Nugent-Hopkins, Stepan, Stastny, Foligno (in Columbus), and Haula led this group in Individual Expected Goals Per 60. This speaks to the quality of chances they were earning, even if the finish wasn’t always there.
- Zajac and Wennberg both scored well above expectation: They topped this group with a +0.54 and +0.44 Actual Goals over Expected Goals at 5-on-5. Wennberg is especially tempting — he’s just 26 — but his 20.7 Shooting % is more than double his previous career average of 8.0 %.
- Sutter and Wennberg tied for best in this group with a +8 Penalty Differential. Goodrow was worst at -10.
- Bozak, Zajac, Sutter, Haula, Stastny, Krejci, Danault, Bonino, Getzlaf, Brassard, Soderberg, and Granlund all won more than 50% of their faceoffs last year.
- Krejci, Zajac, Getzlaf, Bozak, Stepan, and Sutter are the righties in this group.
- Danault, Sutter, and Goodrow earned little power play time this year; on the other hand, Getzlaf, Brassard, Krejci, and Stastny saw little penalty kill time.
So who should the San Jose Sharks target? The scouts will offer their two cents next week.
Based on Wilson’s exit interview, it sounds like they’d love someone more defensively-oriented to take the load off of Logan Couture.
For now, check out Evolving Hockey’s contract predictions for this cadre of centers:
Player | Projected Term | Projected Cap Hit |
---|---|---|
Alex Wennberg | 5 | $4,933,000 |
Barclay Goodrow | 4 | $3,150,000 |
Brandon Sutter | 1 | $990,100 |
Carl Soderberg | 1 | $1,188,000 |
David Krejci | 2 | $4,688,000 |
Derek Stepan | 1 | $1,113,000 |
Derick Brassard | 1 | $1,124,000 |
Erik Haula | 4 | $3,827,000 |
Mikael Granlund | 3 | $5,036,000 |
Nick Bonino | 2 | $2,552,000 |
Nick Foligno | 2 | $2,918,000 |
Paul Stastny | 1 | $2,076,000 |
Phillip Danault | 7 | $6,236,000 |
Ryan Getzlaf | 1 | $2,182,000 |
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins | 7 | $8,121,000 |
Travis Zajac | 1 | $1,433,000 |
Tyler Bozak | 1 | $1,268,000 |
Sounds kinda like my choice of Bozak as 3C is a damn good and cheap option!
Yes! The scouts had good things to say too
One under the radar option: Derek Ryan. Not coming off a great offensive season but his fancy stats were really good and he was a consistent 30-35 point guy before that.
He’s from Spokane and I think Ron Francis had him in Carolina so maybe he just signs with Seattle but if not I’d take him on a cheap one year deal.
He’s probably in the lower tier with Stepan etc., but he would be an excellent buy-low guy for sure, hope his percentages bounce back. I missed him, but he could be the best of the buy-low bunch
the Sharks were a top 14 PK team (really only 1/10ths of a percentage point separating teams 11-15), so i don’t believe they need help in that regard. what they do need help with is offense (29th on the PP/25th in GF) and draws (24th in the league). Stastny can help with both. he can also play as far up as 2C effectively even as an older player. this could help the Sharks ice 2 dangerous top lines by moving LC to wing on occasion (if not permanently). then there’s the fact that Stastny will just be a stop gap… Read more »
All right, I’m convinced. Are you, Doug?
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I kind of wish you included gambrel in this as a benchmark
I didn’t because no one — including the Sharks — regards Gambrell as a 3C right now. But some key stats: 1.02 Points Per 60 at 5-on-5, not good. Scored -0.13 Goals Per 60 less than expected at 5-on-5 — so getting chances but not finishing. 43.8% Faceoff % a huge concern. +3 Penalty Differential, also did take fair share of DZ Faceoffs.
But in end, I think the offense just isn’t there for Gambrell.
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