Sheng Peng
What’s a reasonable Erik Karlsson trade to the Carolina Hurricanes?
But before we get to that, here’s a perhaps wild thought – I don’t think, for the San Jose Sharks, that trading Karlsson is about finding a deal worthy of a reigning Norris Trophy winner.
I know that sounds counter-intuitive, but that’s the truth of the salary cap era. It’s not just about the quality of the player on the ice at the moment – it’s about the player’s age, durability, consistency, and perhaps more than anything, his contract’s term and cost within a team’s salary structure.
So sure, Karlsson just had an amazing season, and has improbably flipped his negative trade value into positive. But he’s also 33, has had his season cut short by injury in three of his last five campaigns, and remains the highest-paid defenseman in the NHL at $11.5 million AAV for four more years.
Bluntly, Karlsson isn’t an asset with a lot of trade value. He may still be a game-changer on the ice, but off the ice, his contract is a massive future risk.
I’ve said that ad infinitum over the last year, as Karlsson was enjoying a season for the ages, and I repeat it again, because of some of the reaction to yesterday’s San Jose Sharks-Pittsburgh Penguins trade proposal.
To further illustrate, let’s compare Karlsson to another well-compensated star, who’s got a lot more trade value.
Connor McDavid actually is paid more than Karlsson – he’s got a $12.5 million AAV – but the 26-year-old is much younger, more durable, and far more consistent.
Karlsson may have had, in some ways, a season every bit as impressive as Hart Trophy winner McDavid’s…but it’s just one year.
McDavid has won three Hart Trophies and is coming off seven-straight top-5 Hart finishes. He’s the picture of consistency, missing just 13 regular season games in that stretch.
Karlsson, on the other hand, has one Norris Trophy and two top-five Norris finishes in his last seven years, 2017 runner-up and 2023 winner. Between that, from 2018 to 2022, he missed 79 regular season games over parts of four seasons because of injuries, finishing 12th for the Norris in 2018, 15th in 2019, and nowhere in the picture from 2020 to 2022.
So if you’re the San Jose Sharks, you’re not just trying to trade the 2023 Norris Trophy winner – you’re also dealing an older player who has a lot of red flags.
There’s an argument that the Sharks are better off keeping Karlsson, especially if the trade offers they’re getting are two quarters for a dollar, except – he doesn’t want to be with San Jose anymore.
The common refrain to the Penguins proposal yesterday, and I’m sure to the Carolina Hurricanes proposal here, is that the Sharks are better off keeping Karlsson if these are the types of offers that they’re getting. They’re not a better team after trading him in these proposals.
I agree.
And sure, he’s signed with the Sharks, for four more years at $11.5 million AAV. Despite the trade rumors swirling around Karlsson, GM Mike Grier can choose to hold onto him.
But you’re keeping a player who will likely become disenchanted unless San Jose, four years and counting out of the playoffs, pulls off a miraculous turnaround in the standings very, very soon. And a player who, if he gets seriously hurt again, will lose his just-regained trade value.
Grier, also, like in the Brent Burns trade last summer and the Karlsson rumors this past season, has appeared to prioritize doing right by his veterans.
Short-term, the Sharks don’t have as much leverage when they’re trading players who want out. Realistic trade proposals reflect that. Long-term, San Jose continues to burnish their reputation as a franchise that treats its players well.
That matters to free agents, case in point Filip Zadina, who chose the Sharks over better offers because of a conversation with head coach David Quinn.
In the end, we can all agree that you don’t want somebody in San Jose who doesn’t want to be here. And Karlsson, while he may love the city and his teammates, understandably doesn’t want to be part of a rebuild.
So I don’t see the Sharks’ aim in a Karlsson trade is to try to “win” it.
I see trading Karlsson as treating him with respect, while moving forward with the players who want to be here and trying to supplement that core with a serviceable trade return.
Hence, my Pittsburgh proposal yesterday, and my Carolina proposal today.
They’re not meant to “good” trades for the San Jose Sharks – they’re meant to be realistic ones.
Keep in mind, this trade proposal is pure speculation.
I did vet it with a scout and a GM from outside the Sharks and Hurricanes organizations.
“It seems like a reasonable deal,” the scout said.
“That sounds reasonable,” the GM agreed.
Here goes – remember this is 100 percent speculation.
To Carolina Hurricanes:
Erik Karlsson
Sharks retain $4.5 million per season for the remaining four years of Karlsson’s contract (39 percent)
To San Jose Sharks:
Teuvo Teravainen
Hurricanes’ 2024 first-round pick (lottery-protected)
Jack Drury
Hurricanes’ 2024 third-round pick
“It may be a little rich for Carolina, but when you get the Norris Trophy winner and elite defender in Karlsson, that’s the price to pay,” the scout opined.
Carolina, unlike Pittsburgh, doesn’t have any albatross contracts that they’ve got to get rid of. The Canes also have an overall rosier cap picture, so they’re not under as much pressure to get rid of a Jeff Petry or Mikael Granlund. Naturally, that will lower San Jose’s return here.
The closest thing to a bad contract on Carolina might be Teravainen, who battled injuries and struggled with just 37 points in 68 games. From 2017 to 2022 though, the Finnish winger put up over 60 points in four of those five seasons.
He’s also just 28 and has got just one year left on his contract at $5.4 million AAV. Before this past season, this was considered a very good contract.
So for the Sharks – and of course, we don’t know who’s on Teravainen’s 10-team No-Trade Clause – he’s a buy-low winger with proven upside, who they might be able to flip at the Deadline for a high pick.
Teravainen is an underrated two-way forward and could get plenty of chances to succeed on both San Jose’s power play and penalty kill.
I see the 2024 third-rounder as basically the Sharks’ reward for taking on Teravainen’s so-so contract.
For what it’s worth, the Hurricanes’ books are so clean for 2023-24, they would probably have to deal just one of their likely trade candidates in Teravainen, Brett Pesce, or Brady Skjei to fit in Karlsson at $7 million AAV.
Unlike Teravainen though, Pesce and Skjei are assets with strong trade values.
How about Jack Drury?
The GM shared, “Jack Drury’s name always comes up [with the Sharks].” Perhaps Drury was part of Carolina’s offer for Timo Meier last Deadline?
While Drury, 23, probably tops out as a bottom-six center, he’s a high-character, high-compete forward that sounds like a Grier-like player.
“Carolina would move both [Teravainen and Drury] for a chance to improve now,” the GM said.
As for the 2024 first, if the Canes trade 28-year-old Pesce or 29-year-old Skjei, they could get a first-rounder back.
And it would still be an embarrassment of riches for them on the blueline, with potentially Burns, Karlsson, Jaccob Slavin, Dmitry Orlov, and Pesce or Skjei. And let’s not forget Tony DeAngelo, who is rumored to be headed back to Carolina soon.
For what it’s worth, another NHL scout offered this word of caution, in regards to Karlsson and the Canes: “I’d expect Carolina to be bargain-hunting more than anything, the same way they did with Burns.”
Last summer, the Hurricanes got Burns with 34 percent retention from the Sharks ($2.7 million AAV for each of three more years) for Steven Lorentz, Eetu Makiniemi, and a 2023 third-round pick.
He didn’t think the value of this trade proposal was off, but questioned why the Hurricanes would give up so much for a luxury like Karlsson – especially if they get Pesce re-signed and bring DeAngelo in.
A blueline with three right-handed PP1 types like Burns, Karlsson, and DeAngelo doesn’t make much sense anyway.
If he’s correct, and the Hurricanes are just playing the field, that could leave the Penguins as the only serious suitor for Karlsson.
That’s not a good sign for the San Jose Sharks’ return on a Karlsson trade.