History of No. 4 Getting No. 1 Pick

The odds for the 2023 NHL Draft lottery are set.

They aren’t in the San Jose Sharks’ favor though, at least if they’re hoping to select presumptive first-overall pick Connor Bedard.

The 22-44-16 Sharks, with 60 points, finished with the fourth-worst record in the NHL. However, they were this close to top odds for Bedard — say one less win and one less overtime/shootout loss — and they would’ve had one less point than the Anaheim Ducks’ 58.

What’s done is done, however. At least the Sharks still have a shot at Bedard.

The Draft lottery is on May 8 at 4 PM PT.

The San Jose Sharks have a 9.5 percent chance at the No. 1 pick, a 9.8 chance at the No. 2, and a 15.4 chance at staying at No. 4. So the Sharks have a 34.7 percent shot at a top-four selection.

Final Tankathon standings pic.twitter.com/GDiHmaxYvR

— JD Young (@MyFryHole) April 15, 2023

This is especially important in a year where there appears to a clear No. 1 in Bedard and a clear top-four in Bedard, Adam Fantilli, Matvei Michkov, and Leo Karlsson.

Of course, the Sharks also have a very good chance of falling out of the top-four. They also have a 44.9 percent chance at the No. 5 pick and a 20.5 chance at the No. 6. That’s a nerve-wracking 65.4 percent likelihood.

The Draft lottery has existed since 1995, and just once has the fourth-worst team received the No. 1 pick. In 2003, the Florida Panthers moved up to first-overall, which they eventually traded to the Pittsburgh Penguins for No. 3. The Penguins used the No. 1 pick on Marc-Andre Fleury, while the Panthers chose Nathan Horton with the third-overall selection.

In 2015, Draft lottery rules were adjusted so it would be less likely for the worst team to win the No. 1 pick. Also, odds for the first-overall were distributed more widely, meaning more teams had a shot at the top pick.

That helped the third-worst Edmonton Oilers get the 2015 No. 1 pick, the fifth-worst New Jersey Devils get the 2017 No. 1 pick, the third-worst 2019 Devils get the 2019 No. 1 pick, and the 14th-worst New York Rangers get the 2020 No. 1 pick.

So you’re telling me there’s a chance? Yes!