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San Jose Sharks

History of No. 4 Getting No. 1 Pick



Credit: Keith Hershmiller Photography

The odds for the 2023 NHL Draft lottery are set.

They aren’t in the San Jose Sharks’ favor though, at least if they’re hoping to select presumptive first-overall pick Connor Bedard.

The 22-44-16 Sharks, with 60 points, finished with the fourth-worst record in the NHL. However, they were this close to top odds for Bedard — say one less win and one less overtime/shootout loss — and they would’ve had one less point than the Anaheim Ducks’ 58.

What’s done is done, however. At least the Sharks still have a shot at Bedard.

The Draft lottery is on May 8 at 4 PM PT.

The San Jose Sharks have a 9.5 percent chance at the No. 1 pick, a 9.8 chance at the No. 2, and a 15.4 chance at staying at No. 4. So the Sharks have a 34.7 percent shot at a top-four selection.

This is especially important in a year where there appears to a clear No. 1 in Bedard and a clear top-four in Bedard, Adam Fantilli, Matvei Michkov, and Leo Karlsson.

Of course, the Sharks also have a very good chance of falling out of the top-four. They also have a 44.9 percent chance at the No. 5 pick and a 20.5 chance at the No. 6. That’s a nerve-wracking 65.4 percent likelihood.

The Draft lottery has existed since 1995, and just once has the fourth-worst team received the No. 1 pick. In 2003, the Florida Panthers moved up to first-overall, which they eventually traded to the Pittsburgh Penguins for No. 3. The Penguins used the No. 1 pick on Marc-Andre Fleury, while the Panthers chose Nathan Horton with the third-overall selection.

In 2015, Draft lottery rules were adjusted so it would be less likely for the worst team to win the No. 1 pick. Also, odds for the first-overall were distributed more widely, meaning more teams had a shot at the top pick.

That helped the third-worst Edmonton Oilers get the 2015 No. 1 pick, the fifth-worst New Jersey Devils get the 2017 No. 1 pick, the third-worst 2019 Devils get the 2019 No. 1 pick, and the 14th-worst New York Rangers get the 2020 No. 1 pick.

So you’re telling me there’s a chance? Yes!

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