Sheng Peng
There are obvious numbers that demonstrate Erik Karlsson’s decline — and not-so-obvious numbers.
Let’s start with the obvious: In 52 games, Karlsson scored just 22 points. This 0.42 Points Per Game was the lowest of his career, just a shade under his 0.43 as a 19-year-old rookie and less than half of his NHL defensemen-leading 0.89 from 2011-20.
The San Jose Sharks defenseman’s 5-on-5 scoring rate was just as ugly: Per Natural Stat Trick, his 0.7 Points Per 60 was also the lowest of his career, while his 0.25 Primary Assists Per 60 was a far cry from 2017-20’s defensemen-leading 0.67.
And it didn’t get much better on the power play: Karlsson’s 2.93 Points Per 60 at 5-on-4 was the third-lowest of his 12-year career. That’s not all on Karlsson, of course — the San Jose Sharks had the third-worst power play in the league in 2020-21.
Save for a spike in his shooting percentage — Karlsson potted eight goals with a 7.3 shooting %, the first time since 2016-17 that he’s cleared five percent — it was a disastrous offensive campaign for the NHL’s most productive offensive defenseman from 2011-20.
But you already know all this. These numbers paint the picture — though they don’t explain it.
So let’s talk about the not-so-obvious numbers — exclusive offensive and defensive micro-stats from SPORTLOGiQ — that offer greater insight into why Karlsson has declined.
But first, the good news. Erik Karlsson is still Erik Karlsson in many important ways.
End-to-End Rushes
Remember the Karlsson who the San Jose Sharks were supposed to be getting from Ottawa? The coast-to-coast, one-man breakout machine? He’s still here.
Karlsson’s straight-ahead speed remains a force to reckon with. He still carries the puck with aplomb:
| End-to-End Rushes (5v5 Per 20) | 2017-18 | 2018-19 | 2019-20 | 2020-21 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erik Karlsson | 0.56 | 0.65 | 0.4 | 0.78 |
Rush Chances
These rushes led to offensive opportunities at a healthy rate.
| Rush Chances (5v5 Per 20) | 2017-18 | 2018-19 | 2019-20 | 2020-21 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erik Karlsson | 0.18 | 0.25 | 0.14 | 0.27 |
Zone Entries
To that end, Karlsson is still consistently gaining the zone with control of the puck.
| Zone Entries (5v5 Per 20) | 2017-18 | 2018-19 | 2019-20 | 2020-21 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erik Karlsson | 1.51 | 1.78 | 1.17 | 1.69 |
These robust micro-stats — End-to-End Rushes, Rush Chances, and Zone Entries — suggest a blueliner still confident, at most times, with his feet and the puck.
Possession Time
You can see this reflected in how much Karlsson has the puck on his stick.
| Possession Time (5v5 Per 20) | 2017-18 | 2018-19 | 2019-20 | 2020-21 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erik Karlsson | 1:34 | 1:36 | 1:34 | 1:38 |
This also holds true in the offensive zone:
| OZ Possession Time (5v5 Per 20) | 2017-18 | 2018-19 | 2019-20 | 2020-21 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erik Karlsson | 0:14 | 0:17 | 0:17 | 0:18 |
Shots
Early in the season, Karlsson was criticized by San Jose Sharks color analyst Bret Hedican for not shooting enough. Karlsson could stand to shoot more, but it looks like he got shots through at 5-on-5 at a reasonable-enough pace this season.
| Shots (5v5 Per 20) | 2017-18 | 2018-19 | 2019-20 | 2020-21 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erik Karlsson | 1.92 | 2.51 | 1.75 | 1.77 |
For what it’s worth, Hedican wasn’t entirely wrong: Before Feb. 27, Karlsson was averaging 1.26 Shots Per 20 at 5-on-5. From Feb. 27 on — when Karlsson returned from his groin injury — he averaged 1.8.
Offense-Generating Plays
The cumulative effect of all this? Karlsson was still creating a credible amount of 5-on-5 offense.
Per SPORTLOGiQ: Offense-Generating Plays “are made up of all plays that lead to scoring chances. In other words, they’re plays that move the puck into high danger areas or situations, recovering pucks for your team, and putting high quality shot attempts on net.”
| Offense-Generating Plays (5v5 Per 20) | 2017-18 | 2018-19 | 2019-20 | 2020-21 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erik Karlsson | 3.07 | 4.99 | 3.38 | 3.06 |
2018-19 looks like the outlier — Karlsson was shooting at an unusually-high clip that season and was surrounded by a much stronger San Jose Sharks cast.
In short, Karlsson was creating a lot of offense for San Jose this season. He didn’t get his share of assists, but it appears that he was still behind many unfinished scoring chances.
Okay, so that’s the offense. How about the defense? Even here, Karlsson has held serve in a couple key areas.
Puck Battle Wins
There’s a perception that Karlsson is a soft defender who doesn’t win puck battles.
At a relatively-slender 6-foot-0 and 190 pounds, it’s true that Karlsson can be overwhelmed physically down low. But he still can win his share of battles with his guile and quickness — and he does.
| Puck Battle Wins (5v5 Per 20) | 2017-18 | 2018-19 | 2019-20 | 2020-21 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erik Karlsson | 1.52 | 2.02 | 1.89 | 1.94 |
Zone Exits
And here’s a category — exiting the defensive zone with possession — where Karlsson actually outperformed his past norms:
| Zone Exits (5v5 Per 20) | 2017-18 | 2018-19 | 2019-20 | 2020-21 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erik Karlsson | 3.58 | 3.88 | 3.76 | 4.83 |
It’s further proof of Karlsson’s continued confidence with the puck and his skating. It might also have something to do with his defensive partners this year too — a declining Marc-Edouard Vlasic and a green Nikolai Knyzhov — where Karlsson might have been charged to carry it out more.
Okay, so that’s the good with Karlsson. What’s the bad?
It’s not a short list. Check this space tomorrow.