Sheng Peng
This article was originally released last month with comments from two NHL scouts. Recently, a third one (Scout #3) was kind enough to add his thoughts.
Erik Karlsson, Brent Burns, and Marc-Edouard Vlasic.
Just two years ago, that was a dream team. Now, it’s fast becoming a nightmare for the San Jose Sharks.
30-year-old Karlsson is signed for seven more seasons and $80.5 million, 35-year-old Burns for five more seasons and $40 million, and 33-year-old Vlasic for six more seasons and $42 million. They all struggled this season, at least relative to their world-class expectations.
Two months ago, ex-Toronto Maple Leafs hockey ops assistant Jack Han offered astute observations on how each defenseman could pick up his game next year.
Now, I asked three scouts these questions: From this trio, whose contract is most appealing? And who looked closest to his prime this year?
Then I’ll share my thoughts — and provide data points from Clear Sight Analytics and SPORTLOGiQ to support my conclusion.
Sharks Trade Talk: Who’s More Tradeable?
Mirror, mirror, on the wall, who’s the most tradeable of them all?
“Do I have to answer?” Scout #1 laughed.
“I would probably take on Karlsson just because of age,” he continued. “But that cap hit is real tough given where things are financially.”
“Definitely not Marc-Edouard Vlasic,” Scout #2 said. “I’m a big Burns fan. Because of the injuries, I’m a little scared of Karlsson. So Burns.”
Scout #1 continued his defense of Karlsson: “He was basically a lock for the Hall of Fame. After the trade and injury trouble, he hasn’t been the same. But at 30, he should be in his prime.”
It’s a split vote between Karlsson and Burns, but if it wasn’t clear, nobody wants these contracts right now.
Scout #3 broke the tie: “If you had to pick a guy, it would probably be Burns. The way he skates, he can carry that. He’s got the legs to last 4-5 more years.”
Burns does receive consistent praise for his superior conditioning. Scout #3 continued: “He’s the only guy I see being effective with that age and term and money and value. I would take a stab at Burns. He’s the one guy who I think could be attractive at the Trade Deadline too.”
All this isn’t to bash Doug Wilson. When these contracts were signed, there were plenty of happy San Jose Sharks fans. I think there was also an expectation, from most fans and front office alike, that these elite defensemen would experience a drop-off at some point, just not so quickly.
The idea was pay for the first four years, pray for the last four years.
Instead, Karlsson, in the first season of an eight-year extension, and Vlasic, in the first two seasons of an eight-year extension, failed to provide consistently world-class play. As for Burns, full credit to him, he at least posted Norris-caliber work in the first two seasons of his eight-year extension, before this dip.
Who Looked Best This Year?
“No one looked anywhere near their prime,” Scout #1 noted.
Scout #2 offered, “I don’t think Burns was himself this year, but he’s still a beast.”
“That’s probably right,” agreed Scout #1.
This jibes with discussions I had with other scouts throughout the year and helps explain the perception that Burns’s contract, despite his age, is probably the most movable.
Simply, Burns still looked the most like Brent Burns this year, in a season where nobody looked right.
Scout #3 added: “Burns was way off the mark. He looked like, in particular, that [the losing] bothered him.
“I didn’t care much for Vlasic this year. Karlsson didn’t know where the fuck he was.”
Karlsson, of course, had his share of extenuating circumstances, including a summer spent recovering from groin surgery instead of training. And all three can point to the diminished depth around them and a mid-season coaching change.
My Thoughts
I actually wouldn’t say “definitely not Marc-Edouard Vlasic.”
I had a conversation with a scout earlier this year and we agreed that while Vlasic isn’t a night-to-night top-pairing defender anymore, he’s still capable of providing top-four minutes. His cerebral game, more reliant on reads and positioning than on supreme physical gifts, also has the potential to age well.
Essentially, we agreed that Vlasic was pretty much a five million-dollar defenseman making seven per.
On the other hand, both prime Karlsson and Burns were physical marvels in different ways, Karlsson with his magnificent skating and Burns with his “bull in a china shop” rambunctiousness. But now, Karlsson’s ankle and groin issues are sapping his stand-out physical gift, while Burns is 35.
The argument here is that the eventual drop for Karlsson and Burns might be more precipitous than it’s been for Vlasic — in that case, I can see Vlasic providing more value per dollar in three years than his highlight-reel teammates.
That said, I’m going to play it safe. Karlsson is the youngest, so I’ll roll the dice on his contract.
Meanwhile, I’ll say that Burns looked the most like Burns this year.
I promised stats from Clear Sight Analytics and SPORTLOGiQ, they’re both Burns’s.
When you think of Burns, besides the beard, you think about his shot. I haven’t spoken to anybody who thinks that he’s lost that.
Activity is also a very Burns-like trait — that “bull in a china shop” game, for better or worse, it’s his hallmark in both zones.
So this caught my eye: Clear Sight Analytics has a Quality Passer statistic, which measures “the number of the player’s passes that lead directly to mid or high percentage scoring chances.”
Burns is the highest-ranked defenseman with 19.11 Expected Assists. And sure, that’s related in part to how much he plays — Burns was the second most-used defender in the NHL this year — but this expected primary assists figure is still better than Roman Josi and John Carlson, to name a couple highly-used offensive blueliners.
And that’s what I saw in the offensive zone from Burns: He’s still making stuff happen, he just didn’t have the same personnel to finish around him.
Now let’s talk about the defensive zone: Per SPORTLOGiQ, Burns led the league in DZ Blocked Passes this year.
Credit: The Point Hockey
Again, this speaks to a player who’s still positively involved in the action, just without the results for a variety of reasons.
Anyway, this all may be an exercise in futility. These contracts are pretty much unmovable and there are reasonable best-case and worst-case scenarios for each blueliner in question.
Best case, Karlsson gets healthy, Burns is still Burns, and Vlasic holds on.
Worst case? Well, it’s time for dinner, and I’m trying to eat here.