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Deep Dive into San Jose’s Prospects, Part 2: Time’s Up

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Jeremy Roy, San Jose Barracuda
Credit: San Jose Barracuda

Who still qualifies as a San Jose Sharks prospect? That’s a criteria we established last week in Part 1 of this multi-part investigation into the Sharks farm system:

By our criteria, Noah Gregor isn’t a prospect anymore, but Alexander True is. By our criteria, the San Jose system currently has 33 prospects. If you didn’t, make sure to check out the introduction to this series.

Deep Dive into San Jose’s Prospects, Part 1: Introduction

As promised, we’re counting down from the least likely to make the NHL to the most intriguing prospects.

Let’s start with three San Jose Sharks prospects who we don’t expect to ever see NHL action:

Jérémy Roy – RD

Roy’s talent has never been in question. The Sharks traded a bundle of picks for the opportunity to select him with the first pick of the second round in 2015. Known as a modern puck mover, Roy scored at nearly a point-per-game pace his draft season in the Quebec Major Junior Hockey League (QMJHL or “the Q”).

Unfortunately, during his fourth season in the Quebec league he suffered an ACL tear and managed to tear the same ligament again the following year as an AHL rookie. It seems Roy was never quite the same after that. 

Before he tore his ACL after 20 games in the AHL, he had amassed eight points, good for 0.4 points-per-game. Since the beginning of the 2000-01 season, 461 defensemen under the age of 21 have played at least 20 games in the AHL, according to EliteProspects.com. Roy’s scoring rate, had he maintained it for the full season, was in the 73rd percentile relative to those other players, alongside names like Dan Hamhuis, Ryan Suter, and Brent Burns. 

Since then, Roy has fallen to the bottom of the San Jose Barracuda depth chart. 

Sheng Peng looked at InStat’s tracked time-on-ice data earlier. According to their calculations, Roy averaged the second-fewest minutes each night of any Barracuda defenseman. Pick224.com, which estimates ice time using on-ice events and individual player shots, has Roy with the fewest minutes on the team. 

Now, Roy did play a bit of forward toward the end of the season, so his ice time as a defender artificially dipped some as a result. But, the fact the coaching staff felt obligated to try him at a different position, and that he was jumped on the depth chart by a handful of 25-year-olds, free agents, and players on AHL contracts are clear indicators that his time in teal is done. 

To add insult to injury, San Jose Hockey Now recently learned that Roy was among four Sharks youngsters who had been dangled on the trade block:

A pending restricted free agent, who by the end of his D+5 season had logged zero NHL games, Roy is all but guaranteed to never make the show. 

Jeffrey Viel, LW

Jeffrey Viel (full name Jeffrey Truchon-Viel, though it appears he now uses the non-hyphenated version publicly) is an undrafted winger whom the Sharks signed as a free agent following his final season in the Q. 

Not much is expected of undrafted free agents. Looking at his career scoring rates, it’s hard to see where the diamond in the rough might be.

Byron Bader, who runs the site HockeyProspecting.com, developed a model to help determine the likelihood a given player makes the NHL. Bader has laid out some thresholds based on NHLe rates (which tell us what percentage of a player’s scoring rate he might retain in the NHL). 

For example, “of the sample population of players to never record a 30+ NHLe, only 18% turned into at least average point-producers.” Bader’s personal NHLe research says that one point in the Q is worth about 0.24 points in the NHL and that one point in the AHL is worth about 0.54 points in the NHL. 

If Viel were going to be an undrafted surprise, he would have needed to have eclipsed 1.5 points per game in junior hockey or 0.67 points per game in the AHL. His best QMJHL season was a 1.1 point-per-game affair as a 20-year-old, and the 2019-20 AHL season saw him reach 0.56 points per game. 

Like Roy, Viel has not yet played an NHL game. And, like Roy, the 2019-20 season was Viel’s fifth year after his first draft-eligible season. Very few skaters, period, play their first NHL game during their D+6 year. For seventh rounders (which we’ll consider Viel for the purpose of this article), the number of skaters who make the NHL that late is effectively zero. 

In Viel’s favor is his improved scoring rate since his rookie AHL season, his solid goal total, and the lack of exciting prospects ahead of him. However, both InStat and Pick224 recorded the forward with middle-of-the-pack ice time. Barring an explosion in scoring whenever the AHL resumes, Viel will finish out his time with the Sharks organization as a depth minor-league player.

Jasper Weatherby – C/LW

It may seem harsh that Weatherby is in this tier of prospects. He was just drafted in 2018 and still has a couple seasons of NCAA eligibility left. If we use 2018 as his draft year, he still has some time. If we use his age-17/18 season as his draft year, Weatherby is entering his D+5 year whenever the NCAA resumes play for the 2020-21 season. 

The issue with Weatherby is that he was never a promising prospect to begin with. It took him until his age-19/20 season in the relatively tame BCHL to score at an exciting clip. With his stellar playoff run, his 1.40 point-per-game scoring rate is one of the 60 best age-19 seasons in the league since 2000-01. In such a weak league, that is equivalent to about eight NHL points in an 82-game season. 

Weatherby has taken on a bigger role in the North Dakota offense. During the 2019-20 season, he registered the second-highest proportion of shot attempts of anyone on his team. But, his win share (which “attempts to quantify an individual player’s contribution to their team”) was mild.

The big forward’s placement here has some to do with his development timeline and much to do with his lack of production at any stage of his career until he was older than his leaguemates. If he signs an ELC by the August 15, 2022 deadline, it would be a major surprise.

“Deep Dive into San Jose’s Prospects, Part 3: Last Chance” coming soon!

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Sheng Peng

Fabulous work as usual! But I’m not sure if NHLe projections will matter so much for somebody like Jeffrey Viel, who has a simpler path to the NHL as a fourth-line energy guy. From my sources within the organization, I’ve heard a ton of positive stuff about Viel, intangible stuff + leadership too. Can see him as the new John McCarthy. It’s my belief that Viel would’ve been rewarded with his NHL debut this year had the season not been cut short.

Victor Nuño

Interesting re: Viel. Without that insider info, I have to agree with Erik!

Sheng Peng
Sheng Peng

For sure, making your NHL debut with this year’s Sharks isn’t exactly saying a lot! But yea, I think he’ll get a long look next season. FWIW I don’t think the Sharks have a lot of guys like Viel who are close in the system, that’ll help him. Won’t be an impact guy by any stretch, but maybe he’s got a career at a 13th forward?

Jackson Edward

I’ve watched Viel go out of his way many times to defend teammates generate tempo. He’s a solid dude with definite 4th line NHL potential.

Sheng Peng

He’s a leader for sure, kind of guy that organizations love having around.

david barnard

Viel can challenge Kane for most PIMs.

Sheng Peng

It can be a good thing if it means that Evander takes less! Somebody else who will step up so he doesn’t feel like he has to.

Analytics

Deep Dive into San Jose’s Prospects, Part 6: NHL Regulars?

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Lean Bergmann, San Jose Sharks
Credit: San Jose Barracuda

As we climb the ladder of San Jose Sharks prospects, we inch ever closer to those who stand a reasonable chance of playing for the big-league club. One of these next three prospects has already logged a few NHL games. All three of them offer promise for the same combination of things that help any prospect: Draft capital, scouting profile, production progression, and lack of competitive options in the Sharks pipeline.

It’s not reasonable to expect any of these players to become top-of-the-lineup material. Their trajectories arc toward complementary players at the professional level, but those are roster spots best filled with young players on cheap deals. This group of three players has a good chance to fill exactly that role even if it’s no certain thing. Welcome — to the borderline NHL regulars group!

Before you dig in, check out the rest of this deep dive into the San Jose Sharks prospects — this series began before the 2020 Draft, so it’s focused on non-2020 Draft prospects.

If you’re new to these, you can check out the introductory explainer article here — this will have all the definitions you need to know.

Part 2 looked at prospects — Jeremy Roy, Jeffrey Viel, and Jasper Weatherby — whose time is already up. And indeed, that’s the case for Roy, at least in the San Jose organization. Roy’s entry-level contract expired two weeks ago, and the the Sharks declined to offer him a new contract, making the 2015 second-round pick a UFA.

Part 3 examined players — Jonathan Dahlen, Thomas Gregoire, Jayden Halbgewachs, Nikolai Knyzhov, Maxim Letunov, Scott Reedy, and Danil Yurtaykin — who likely have just one more year left to prove themselves. Halbgewachs was recently signed to a two-year contract, which Letunov got one year.

Part 4 analyzed prospects — Zachary Gallant, Vladislav Kotkov, Jake McGrew, and Kyle Topping — who still have time left but are otherwise unlikely to become NHLers.

Part 5 focused on some of the more intriguing youngsters in the San Jose Sharks system: Zachary Emond, Joseph Garreffa, Santeri Hatakka, Krystof Hrabik, Timur Ibragimov, Zach Sawchenko, and Yegor Spiridonov.

So who are the Sharks prospects that I project to be borderline NHL regulars?

Lean Bergmann – W

Lean Bergmann played 12 games with the Sharks during the 2019-20 season. He finished the season with the big club, playing four of the team’s last seven games. In those four games he averaged just 7:54 of ice time and took just two shots on goal. 

Advanced metrics that adjust for a player’s context don’t show Bergmann in a very bright light, either. It’s too hard to take much away from a sample size of just 96 minutes of ice time, but his impact on even-strength expected goals for & against and shots for & against were all one standard deviation or more worse than average. That’s a difficult feat to accomplish given that the model in question pulls everything back toward average to begin with. 

It shouldn’t be terribly surprising that Bergmann struggled in the NHL. He was forced into a situation few 21-year-olds would envy: A team that had lost its high-end forward depth and would struggle immensely to begin a season that ended with a new head coach behind the bench. 

Lean Bergmann San Jose Sharks

Even without that context, it’s difficult to expect much from a prospect who never really got going until his age-20/21 season. As a 17- and 18-year-old in the USHL, Bergmann failed to crack the half-point-per-game mark before returning to Germany. There, he impressed, with a 0.58 point-per-game campaign. 

According to Elite Prospects, Bergmann’s scoring rate ranks ninth among 222 DEL forwards to play at least 20 games during a U21 season since 2000-01. We should note, however, that of the eight forwards ranked above him, most either scored at a higher rate at the same age or even earlier. The closest trajectory to Bergmann’s own was that of Marcel Müller. Müller played one game for the Maple Leafs but otherwise spent the better part of two North American seasons with the AHL Marlies. 

So why is Bergmann exciting? Not much exists in the way of scouting reports for the undrafted free agent. Those that are floating in the internet ether describe a combination of size, toughness, and shooting ability. 

Chris Legg of Dobber Prospects writes of someone who, for his size, “can really dangle and shoots the puck with authority.”

In an interview with The Athletic’s Kevin Kurz, Barracuda General Manager Joe Will spoke of a forward who “showed character, skating, and good physio” despite a lack of production. 

A more in-depth scouting report at McKeen’s Hockey describes a player who, “has very quick hands for someone his size, and…can effectively utilize his size and strength to create offensive chances for himself.”

Usually, scouting reports that focus on size and strength aren’t incredibly encouraging. Bergmann, however, has already logged NHL time with the Sharks’ current head coach, however brief. He has skill to go along with his frame, and another year in North America should help him further acclimate to the smaller rink. According to Elite Prospects, Bergmann did score in the top one-third of 20- and 21-year-old forward seasons in the AHL since 2000-01. 

Right now, there are probably two or more spots in the San Jose Sharks’ bottom-six up for grabs. Bergmann may not necessarily have an inside track to one of them, but he has the profile and existing NHL experience to earn himself another stint with the big club whenever the 2020-21 season begins. 

Dillon Hamaliuk – W

The best thing going for Dillon Hamaliuk is his second-round draft capital. Nearly three-quarters of skaters drafted in the second round play at least one NHL game. A majority of them make it to 10 games. Part of that statistic has nothing to do with the player. NHL teams try their darndest to make expensive investments pan out: Just look at the opportunities the Sharks have given Dylan Gambrell relative to Noah Gregor. 

That something out of a player’s hands is the core reason he might make the big leagues isn’t a glowing endorsement. There’s more to the big forward’s chances than draft position, though. Byron Bader’s prospect model compares players’ scoring rates to those of thousands of other drafted players. After his draft season, Hamaliuk had a 45 percent chance to become a regular NHLer. 

Dillon Hamaliuk San Jose Sharks NHLe

Only about 40 percent of second-round skaters go on to play 80 NHL games, which we’ll consider makes them “regular.” If we knew nothing but the winger’s scoring rates at the time of the draft, we could safely assume he was following the trajectory of so many other second-round picks before him to the NHL. 

Jeremy Davis, formerly of Canucks Army, also built a prospect evaluation model. Davis ranked Hamaliuk as the 2019 draft’s 30th-best prospect. He was involved in more than 21 percent of his team’s 5-on-5 goals but had just a 19 percent chance of making the NHL. This discrepancy hints at Hamaliuk’s play behind the raw scoring totals. 

The season before his draft year, Hamaliuk’s impact on his team’s scoring network was poor. In other words, he was overly reliant on strong teammates for his scoring. We can excuse him for that as a young rookie playing in a tough WHL. The concern is that his inability to score without strong teammates has stayed with him.

Highlight reels, which are supposed to highlight a player’s ceiling, quickly become repetitive. Hamaliuk is scoring goals, often from up close and after rebounds and around the blue paint. He is rarely making a pass or creating a play. That’s not necessarily a bad thing. Every team needs finishers. His brand of scoring probably just means he’ll need a sharp center to play with if we are to expect exciting goal totals moving forward. 

He makes the most of his teammates’ playmaking, however. InStat has tracked shot and expected goal differential since September 2018. Hamaliuk has been on the wrong side of the shot share ledger more often than not. Where he thrives is being on the ice for a high volume of expected goals. 

That isn’t a surprise. To quickly peruse a handful of scouting reports, I fed them to a word cloud generator. 

Dillon Hamaliuk San Jose Sharks Scouting Report

(Word cloud algorithm and image from Jason Davies)

You can see that some of the most prominent words in his reports have to do with strength, power, and the net front. There are also adjectives, including “decent,” “effective,” “solid,” and “good.” Those aren’t necessarily bad things, but they aren’t effusive reviews, either.  

The 2019-20 season was a challenge for Hamaliuk. Per Sheng Peng, he came down with mono in November and his scoring rates understandably fell. Per Elite Prospects, the power forward scored 0.7 points per game in September and October. In November and December, he scored just five points in 14 games. 

In Peng’s interview, Doug Wilson Jr. mentions that Hamaliuk was finally back and healthy three weeks before the interview, which would have been about the beginning of February. During the 15 games between February 2 and the end of the season, Hamaliuk scored 11 points, back at his 0.7 point-per-game rate from earlier. It’s good to see him rebound. It’s hard to get excited about a 19-year-old not cracking the point-per-game threshold in junior hockey. 

Hamaliuk’s statistical and scouting profiles point to someone who is good once the puck is in the offensive zone but who may not be helpful getting it there. His calling cards are his size and strength, which aren’t scouting terms that typically portend high-level success. His second-round draft position and the Sharks’ love of power forwards should provide Hamaliuk ample opportunity. Realistically, his NHL career arc is one of an effective bottom-six player.

Alexei Melnichuk – G

San Jose signed Alexei Melnichuk to a two-year entry-level deal in May this year. The Russian goaltender turned 22 one month later and is poised to play spoiler to the other goaltending prospects in the pipeline. 

It’s difficult to get a good read on goalies because there is so little information available about those who do not play in the NHL already. The best approach for Melnichuk might be to compare him to another goaltender whom he followed up the ladder in the St. Petersburg program: Igor Shestyorkin (Shesterkin).

Shestyorkin made his triumphant arrival at the NHL level this season for the New York Rangers as a 24-year-old. Melnichuk served as Shestyorkin’s understudy in the MHL, VHL, and KHL, tracking about two seasons behind Shestyorkin.

For example, Shestyorkin played his first KHL games during his age-17/18 season. Melnichuk didn’t see KHL time until he was 19. Here’s a comparison of the two goalies save percentages in the leagues in which they played the most games in a given season. 

Shestyorkin’s save percentages are much stronger than the Sharks’ free agent signing up until this past season.

This year, Melnichuk’s 0.930 in the KHL was very similar to Shestyorkin’s 0.933 during his age-20/21 season. The major difference? Shestyorkin accomplished this while playing nearly twice as many games. 

If the Rangers’ new No. 1 didn’t make the leap to the NHL until his age-23/24 season, it’s hard to believe Melnichuk will arrive much sooner. This is a very rough estimate, of course, but if Melnichuk is tracking about two seasons behind his older compatriot, then the earliest we should expect him in a San Jose Sharks uniform is the 2023-24 season. 

It’s exciting to have a young goalie with a track record of professional success. If Shestyorkin can be a star in the NHL, maybe Melnichuk can be an average goalie? That’s an ideal situation for an undrafted addition at a position of need.

Looking Ahead

This series covers 33 San Jose Sharks prospects in total, and doesn’t include 2020 Draft picks.

After this installment, eight skaters — about 25 percent of the total prospect pool — remain. Byron Bader’s database of historical draft picks says about 25 percent of all skaters (no goaltenders included) chosen in the Draft become NHL regulars. That places Bergmann and Hamaliuk right on the cusp of future NHL regular material. Melnichuk is in a different category, but his relatively promising track record and immediate access to the San Jose Barracuda’s crease give him a strong chance, as of this writing, of becoming an NHL regular.

There’s nothing certain about this group of players, but it feels safe to call them future borderline NHL regulars.

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Which Veteran Defenseman Will Sharks Sign?

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Credit: NHL

A glance at the San Jose Sharks defensemen depth chart reveals a glaring hole.

Behind Erik Karlsson and Brent Burns on the right side, San Jose has Ryan Merkley, and then…

Nicolas Meloche is a 23-year-old that the Sharks acquired last summer by sending goalie Antoine Bibeau to the Avalanche. The 26-year-old goaltender is currently without a contract, if that tells you anything about Meloche’s trade value. Nick DeSimone turns 26 in November and has played as many NHL games as you or I.

San Jose Sharks GM Doug Wilson referenced this last Friday: “You want to have a spot of competition for people. Pasichnuk signed with us. Merkley is obviously a first-round pick. [Jake Middleton] is a quality veteran who’s paid his dues. So you want them to be able to compete. But you also want to have competition.

“You don’t want to give spots away. We’ve got five NHL-quality d-men.”

So while Merkley and recently signed Brinson Pasichnuk (a lefty) offer exciting statistical profiles, it would be a major surprise if the Sharks went into the season with those two duking it out for the sixth defense spot. After the organization misevaluated its own prospects ahead of the 2019-20 season, it seems near impossible that Wilson will go into next year without a veteran defenseman in that role.

And there aren’t many veteran blueliners left on the free agent market, especially in San Jose’s price range. So who could Wilson possibly be targeting?

Wilson’s quote after signing bottom-pairing defender Dalton Prout last year may indicate the type of player he’s looking for:

“Dalton is a very smart defenseman who has shown he can move the puck cleanly under pressure and keep his turnover rates low,” said Wilson, “We believe his ability to hold the defensive zone blue line is underrated and that he is one of the best at limiting net-front rebounds by effectively using his size and stick. We’re excited to add his responsible defensive play to our blue line.”

It’s difficult to quantify that player profile.

Analyst CJ Turtoro has visualized Corey Sznajder‘s manually tracked data, which may help. Prout’s sample size of tracked data is small, so the caveat exists that these results have not stabilized yet. What the recorded data we have from the 2016 through 2018-19 seasons shows is that Prout did well when asked to break up plays at his own blueline. Among the defenders Corey tracked, Prout ranked in the 72nd percentile in terms of blueline entry attempts broken up.

Dalton Prout tracked data

The rest of his tracked data leaves something to be desired. Whatever Sznajder saw while re-watching Prout’s games, it certainly wasn’t a defenseman who “can move the puck cleanly under pressure” — and that’s not all that differed from Wilson’s assessment of the player. According to the NHL.com, Prout had one of the worst giveaway rates of all defensemen who played at least 20 games between the 2017-18 and 2018-19 seasons.

So it appears the one thing we have that may help us tie Wilson’s player assessment to quantifiable information is the blueline breakup ability.

Which Available Defensemen Fit Prout’s Profile?

Armed with Doug Wilson’s quote and Dalton Prout’s micro data profile, we can peruse the remaining free agents to see who the San Jose Sharks might have a contract for. Along with being steady at the blueline, we’re probably also looking for a player with size. Wilson believed Prout was good a “limiting net-front rebounds with his size and his stick,” after all. Though the Sharks don’t necessarily need to solve their right-shot blueline conundrum now — lefty Mario Ferraro, for example, played on the right side for a lot of the year — we’ll start with right-handed UFAs.

Puckpedia, as always, is a wonderful resource for this type of research. Here are the remaining UFA right-shot defensemen, sorted by games played in 2019-20.

In a word, this list isn’t most appetizing. Alex Pietrangelo will probably have a contract by the time you read this, and he wasn’t coming to San Jose anyway. Mike Green has retired. Prout, of course, is a UFA, but as Sheng Peng noted, he’s not quite ready to join an NHL team yet:

By process of elimination, we can cut this list down to three players who may fit the Prout mold.

Jan Rutta

Jan Rutta has performed well at the blueline the last three seasons disrupting would-be entries.

The 6-foot-2, 200-pound sturdy right shot played depth minutes for the recently crowned Stanley Cup champion Lightning. Though he was known for his fluid skating and ability to move the puck while playing overseas, it’s likely that the depth defender’s reach and strength are what draw NHL teams to him. Of the 285 defensemen to suit up for at least 20 games during the past two seasons, Rutta’s rate of giveaways is the 16th-best, in the event Wilson is counting. Evolving Wild’s contract model projects Rutta’s market value to be somewhere around one-year, $824,000, which is ideal given the San Jose Sharks budget.

Rutta tracking data San Jose Sharks

Yannick Weber

The 32-year-old journeyman defenseman just finished his fourth season in Nashville. He’s just 5-foot-11, but at 200 pounds, he surely passes the size muster of NHL GMs. He’s registered about one hit per game, which makes him a touch more physical than Rutta. Clearly, his one major strength is breaking up plays at his blueline. Evolving Wild’s model assigns Weber a cap hit value of $651,000, which is below the veteran minimum of $750,000, so we’ll say he’s a veteran minimum contract.

Yannick Weber tracking data San Jose Sharks

Sami Vatanen

Vatanen is here because he’s been fairly disruptive at the blueline during the past few seasons. But, at just 5-foot-10, 185 pounds, the 29-year-old defender doesn’t quite fit the rough-and-rugged profile Wilson seems to be looking for — of course, the San Jose Sharks GM may have changed his search criteria since last offseason. Vatanen is also known more for his offensive prowess than his ability to box out forwards in front of his crease. And, there’s the pesky fact that Evolving Wild projects Vatanen’s next contract to be worth around $2 million for one season. That’s a tough sell for a team up against it.

Sami Vatanen San Jose Sharks

What About Lefties?

Because this signing doesn’t also have to fix the San Jose Sharks’ organizational depth, we can also look at lefty defensemen who still stand without a contract.

To spare you, we’ll list the players who meet the blueline disruptor criteria and whose projected contracts aren’t likely to be prohibitive to the Sharks’ pocketbook: Slater Koekkoek and Ben Hutton. Hutton and Koekkoek, like Weber and Rutta, also sport low giveaway rates, according to NHL.com’s database.

Who Will Sharks Sign?

Evolving Wild projects both Hutton and Koekkoek to be worth around $1.5 million on a one-year deal. Assume the Sharks sign Patrick Marleau to his rumored $1 million deal and Joe Thornton to a similar contract. That leaves the Sharks with about $4.7 million in cap space to sign a depth defender and add another NHL forward, while leaving some wiggle room for call-ups during the season. A $1.5 million deal for a depth defender isn’t a deal breaker. But if the Sharks are hoping one of Ryan Merkley or Brinson Pasichnuk overtake said defender, it makes sense to spend as little as possible on a signing while still bringing in a helpful player.

Using our research here and Wilson’s previous words, it seems likely that the Sharks have a candidate in mind. To understand what you’re about to see, here’s a primer:

Micah Blake McCurdy developed a model at HockeyViz to evaluate players. His model adjusts for a player’s teammates, opponents, and the score of the game, among other factors, to try to isolate as much as possible a player’s individual impact on the game. The output of his model is a heatmap that shows just what sorts of shots a player helps his team take on offense and prevent on defense. Dark red represents lots of shots for and dark blue represents a dearth of shots against. These individual outputs are paywalled, so I’m only going to share one with you, that of the player the Sharks are most likely to sign.

 

Jan Rutta San Jose Sharks Tampa Bay Lightning

Micah Blake McCurdy | Hockeyviz.com

Rutta checks plenty of boxes.

He’s big, he doesn’t give the puck away, he’s solid at breaking up zone entries, and it will probably only require a veteran minimum contract to lure him to San Jose. On top of all that, he has been a solid generator of offense in a depth role in Tampa Bay.

Rutta killed penalties for the Lightning and also played with Victor Hedman for portions of the season, which suggests the utility man can play up and down the lineup just fine. Rutta just added a Stanley Cup win to his resume, no doubt sending Wilson’s eye all a-twinkle.

The San Jose Sharks would probably be better off with someone more capable of exiting his own zone, but Rutta otherwise seems to fit both the hockey man’s ideal of a depth defenseman and the analytics nerd’s vision of a useful role player. For $800,000 or thereabouts, this deal would be too good for Wilson to pass up.

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Analytics

Cat Silverman & Cole Anderson on If Acquiring Dubnyk Is a Mistake

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Sharks trade talk, Devan Dubnyk Minnesota Wild

On the surface, the Devan Dubnyk narrative is simple.

From 2014-19, Dubnyk was a top goaltender — second only to Braden Holtby in Games Started, fifth with a .920 Save % (200-plus games played), a positive Goals Saved Above Average (GSAA) in every season, third place in 2015 Vezina Trophy voting and fifth in 2017.

That would make Dubnyk’s 2019-20 — .890 Save %, -16.23 GSAA, lost the number-one job to Alex Stalock — an obvious aberration. Dubnyk’s wife also underwent serious health issues during the year.

With that in mind, who wouldn’t want to trade for Dubnyk, especially at just one year left and a $4.33 million cap hit? Naturally, the San Jose Sharks, looking to supplement Martin Jones, have been linked to Dubnyk for the better part of a week — and it looks like a deal is getting close.

Sharks Trade 3rd for Donato, Is Dubnyk Deal Next?

Digging deeper, however, advanced stats suggest that Dubnyk has had more than one bad year.

That .920 Save % from 2014-19? That positive GSAA from each season? Dubnyk was just doing what was expected.

GSAA is roughly a goaltender’s Save % versus league-average Save % — applied to the number of shots that the goaltender has faced. However, it doesn’t account for shot quality or the team in front of the goalie. So a netminder behind a strong defensive squad is less likely to face high-danger scoring chances — therefore, his Save % and GSAA will likely be better than the average.

But there’s another stat that suggests Dubnyk’s Save % and GSAA should’ve been higher — not just this year, but for the last five seasons.

Per Evolving-Hockey’s Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx), Dubnyk has allowed more goals, in all situations, than he should have for the last five years.

PlayerSeasonTeamGSAAGSAx
Devan Dubnyk14-15MIN20.5710.7
Devan Dubnyk15-16MIN6.3-3.21
Devan Dubnyk16-17MIN16.73-8.82
Devan Dubnyk17-18MIN8.98-13.76
Devan Dubnyk18-19MIN7.54-18.72
Devan Dubnyk19-20MIN-15.45-27.49

To be exact, per this model, Dubnyk surrendered 27.49 goals more than an average goaltender would’ve this year. By this measure, he was the worst keeper in the NHL this year, worst than two-win Jimmy Howard.

GSAx measures how many goals that a netminder has surrendered above or below expected, based on the shot quality faced. Public measures of shot quality are mostly based on shot location.

In translation, according to GSAx, Dubnyk has lived off a staunch Wild defense — and he hasn’t outperformed it since 2014-15.

So should the San Jose Sharks be concerned about Dubnyk’s GSAx? Is he really the right guy for a not-as-tight Sharks defense?

I asked goaltending experts Catherine Silverman and Cole Anderson their thoughts about GSAx, and what the San Jose organization might see in Dubnyk.

Goals Saved Above Expected

First, let’s get this out of the way. I’m pretty sure that the San Jose Sharks are aware of Dubnyk’s less-than-stellar numbers in this regard over the last five seasons. This (fantastic) modeling from Evolving-Hockey is based on publicly-available data and costs (well worth it) $5 a month.

Independent of each other, Silverman and Anderson agreed on one thing that might have affected Dubnyk’s GSAx.

“I’m convinced they overused him for a while there,” Silverman wrote, “and it tanked his numbers for stretches.”

Anderson offered: “It doesn’t account for how much the goalie is used.”

As noted, Dubnyk was second in the league in Games Started from 2014-19.

Let’s also talk about how GSAx measures shot quality. GSAx pulls from the league’s data. Therefore, GSAx’s account of scoring chances is mainly shot location. The closer the shot, the more dangerous it is, the farther the shot, the less dangerous it is. Nothing else: Pre-shot movement (i.e. passing), odd-man rushes, shot velocity, and traffic are among the keys to goal scoring that are not accounted for by GSAx.

Anderson countered: “GSAx is based on the output of models based on league’s data — the league provides raw data, but not the modelled or ‘insightful’ pieces. It is mainly shot location and type but also has the game state like power play, shooter, and we can also infer some time-based variables, like if the shot is a rebound, or if the shot comes seconds after an event in the neutral zone, likely off the rush.

“But what you listed is all true and the biggest missing pieces, although those aren’t as important as people might think. For example, a team will often pass to get good shot locations, or elect to use a 2-on-1 to get a shot tight to the net, so shot location is a good proxy for those things in this model.”

All that said, Anderson added of the stat: “It isn’t by itself incredibly repeatable — which is good news for Dubnyk — and the public version relies on modeling on NHL data, which is somewhat incomplete and has some issues.”

He suggested of the league’s data: “It’s possible Minnesota specifically might have recorded shots further from the net which would make Dubnyk’s job look easier than it was in reality in half his games.”

Now all this doesn’t account for Dubnyk’s lost 2019-20 campaign — and once again, the 34-year-old netminder had plenty of reasons to not have focus — but they might prop up the more marginal results from 2015-19.

What Might San Jose Sharks See in Dubnyk?

Silverman pointed out that Adam Francilia, a Sharks goaltending consultant, has worked with Dubnyk for years. Nabokov authorized Francilia to work with Aaron Dell this year.

As Pierre LeBrun noted, San Jose wants to make sure that Dubnyk is comfortable with moving to West Coast, considering his wife’s health problems — and giving Dubnyk the chance to work more with Francilia could certainly be a lure. You want guys who want to play for you.

Doug Wilson also spelled out what he was looking for in a new goaltender on Friday: “Ideally — and it depends on what the cost is, the acquisition cost — is getting a guy who’s been a number-one, that’s a veteran, who wants to come in and compete for a spot.”

Wilson Spells Out What Sharks Are Looking for in Goal Next Year

This sounds like Dubnyk — and not like Aaron Dell, for example.

So Dubnyk is a good fit for the Sharks goaltending depth chart, which at the moment, reads Martin Jones, then…21-year-old prospect Alexei Melnichuk?

“I’m not yet convinced that Melnichuk is ready for the big leagues and I don’t think anyone is,” Silverman said, “but in theory, they’re hoping that he’ll be ready sooner rather than later and would want a stopgap who has worked with Francilia before.”

But why Dubnyk in particular? The jury is still out on that and it will be fascinating to pick Wilson and Nabokov’s brains on the subject when the time comes.

“[Dubnyk] obviously has size and can manage the game a little deeper in the crease. Goaltender results can be heavily influenced by their environment — like any position, really — so if Nabokov or the rest of the staff like the skill-set, I am certainly open-minded,” Anderson conjectured. “Jones and Dell specifically were more aggressive than average, which may not have been a good fit for San Jose.”

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