Preview/Lines #58: Warsofsky on How Analytics Affect Sharks’ Line Construction

Ryan Warsofsky gave a perhaps unexpected reason for opting for Kiefer Sherwood over Collin Graf on the Macklin Celebrini line.

The line of San Jose Sharks youngsters, Celebrini, Graf, and Will Smith, has been a fan favorite. But?

“If you look at the analytics, that line is not as good as everyone says it was. If you really look into the numbers,” Warsofsky said on Sunday. “You watch the eye test, yeah, they score a couple goals, and that’s what everyone sees. But there’s also some deficiencies with that line together. Doesn’t mean we won’t try it again, at some point.”

What analytics were lagging?

“Expected goals for and goals against, I would say the biggest thing,” Warsofsky said. “Puck possession would be another one. I’m not going to go through the long, long list of everything we go through, but I would say that’s the biggest ones.”

Per Natural Stat Trick, Graf-Celebrini-Smith at 5-on-5 had a 40.38 Expected Goals For % and 41.18 Corsi For %. Just for comparison, Celebrini’s most regular line this season is with Smith and Tyler Toffoli, a trio that sports a 46.88 xGF % and 47.27 CF %. Small sample size, but Smith-Celebrini-Sherwood has excelled in these categories with a 57.6 xGF % and 54.43 CF %.

Keep in mind, Natural Stat Trick is just a decent thumbnail for public consumption. Warsofsky and the San Jose Sharks might use different and/or private xGF models for their evaluations.

Interestingly too, Toffoli-Celebrini-Smith blows away Graf-Celebrini-Smith in counting stats, with a 73.91 Goals For % versus the latter’s 57.1 %.

Anyway, Warsofsky is more than just peripherally aware of hockey analytics.

In that case, why does he keep leaning on, for example, his regular fourth line of Barclay Goodrow-Zack Ostapchuk-Ryan Reaves, 40.11 xGF % and 43.11 CF %?

“If you look at it, some lines are doing well in expected goals for, goals against. Some lines that are good possession lines. There’s good [creating turnovers] line. I mean, you can go through [a lot],” Warsofsky said. “There’s a rabbit hole you can go down through with analytics. Doesn’t mean we make our decision solely on analytics.”

Ryan Warsofsky has called his fourth line, led by Goodrow and Reaves, and centered mostly by Ostapchuk or Adam Gaudette, his “identity” line. That’s obviously not an analytics term, but it does give lots of insight into what this head coach values.

In the construction of a line-up, Warsofsky might have a line designated to drive play more. Another to match up against the opponent’s best players. Another to forecheck and create turnovers. And another for “identity”.

“Yeah, sometimes, yeah,” Warsofsky said. “I think there’s a lot of eye test that needs to pass from the coaches and myself, and then there’s trust that goes with certain players in certain situations.”

He added: “It’s match-ups. There’s an array of reasons for certain lines and certain lines that we like, certain lines we want to see. Obviously, we wanted Wennberg to match up against McDavid [yesterday]. So it really depends game-to-game.”

San Jose Sharks (28-25-4)

Alex Nedeljkovic will start, otherwise, the Sharks will line up the same as yesterday:

Smith-Celebrini-Sherwood
Kurashev-Wennberg-Graf
Eklund-Misa-Toffoli
Goodrow-Ostapchuk-Regenda

Orlov-Klingberg
Ferraro-Mukhamadullin
Dickinson-Desharnais

Nedeljkovic

Winnipeg Jets (23-26-9)

Welcome back, Walker Duehr!

Connor-Scheifele-Vilardi
Perfetti-Lowry-Iafallo
Nyquist-Toews-Duehr
Koepke-Barron-Pearson

Stanley-DeMelo
Samberg-Salomonsson
Fleury-Schenn

Hellebuyck

Where To Watch

Puck drop between the San Jose Sharks and Winnipeg Jets is at 1 PM PT at SAP Center. Watch it live on NBC Sports California. Listen to it on the Sharks Audio Network.