Sharks Are Better Than Last Year…But Why Aren’t They Winning More? (+)

Are the San Jose Sharks better than last year?

They had appeared to turn the page on last season’s disaster in early December — on Dec. 7, they were 10-15-5, a .417 Points % with a -22 Goal Differential.

This was a far cry from 2023-24’s 19-54-9, a .287 Points % with a -146 Goal Differential.

But on Dec. 9, the Sharks traded Mackenzie Blackwood, and it’s been all downhill since then — they’ve gone 5-20-2 with a -42 Goal Differential.

At the 4 Nations Face-Off break, their 15-35-7 record is nearly identical to their mark through 57 games last year, 15-37-5, a difference of two points.

Of course, the Goal Differential is a real improvement, -99 at this point last season, -64 now.

A lot of that is more scoring, led by newcomers Tyler Toffoli and Macklin Celebrini and Jake Walman, among others.

But looking deeper, here are some key areas where the San Jose Sharks are better than in 2023-24 — and some categories where they’re not.

Are the Sharks better this year? Micro-stats from Stathletes give an idea.

OZ Possession Time

To compare 82 games from 2023-24 with 57 games from 2024, I’m going to use Per 60 stats from Stathletes.

Last season, the San Jose Sharks were outpossessed at 5-on-5 in the offensive zone by an astounding 3:28 a game. That was dead-last in the NHL.

That means the other team had the puck in the OZ three-and-a-half minutes more a game, on average, than the Sharks. To illustrate how staggering that -3:28 is, the Chicago Blackhawks were a second-worst -2:23 and the Anaheim Ducks were a third-worst -1:24.

This year?

San Jose is still league-worst in this category, but it’s not as ugly. They’re at -2:08 now, the Blackhawks are a second-worst -1:45, and the Ducks are a third-worst -1:44.

The largest gain this season might be, surprisingly, defensive.

These are all NHL-worst figures, but the Sharks have shaved a full minute off their OZ Possession Time Against.

Better defensive newcomers, albeit still very flawed ones, in Walman, Cody Ceci, and Timothy Liljegren have helped, as have a cast of different, more competent two-way forwards, from Celebrini to Toffoli to Alex Wennberg to Barclay Goodrow and more.

Scoring Chances

Better OZ possession figures on both sides of the puck have also led to a less unsightly Scoring Chances differential at 5-on-5.

Last season, the San Jose Sharks had an NHL-worst -5.8 Scoring Chances differential at 5-on-5, meaning the other team had on average six more scoring chances a game than the Sharks.

This year? San Jose isn’t actually league-worst in this category, their -3.07 is third-worst, ahead of Anaheim and Chicago.

The offensive and defensive gains are noticeable here:

Expected Goals

Better Possession Time and Scoring Chances differentials have led to a better Expected Goals differential.

Last season, the San Jose Sharks had an NHL-worst -1.08 xG differential. This year, they’re still league-worst, but at more manageable -0.7.

Penalty Kill

The penalty kill results are about the same, this year from last year. The San Jose Sharks currently have the ninth-worst PK % in the NHL, 75.4. Last season, they had the fourth-worst at 75.4.

But the underlying Short-Handed Per 60 numbers from Stathletes suggest that the PK has improved.

Goaltending

So why aren’t the San Jose Sharks winning more, despite marginally better play this season?

The answer could be as simple as goaltending.

Per Stathletes, Blackwood, now with the Colorado Avalanche, had a +2.64 Goals Saved Above Expected with San Jose — he had a +4.7 last season, the only Sharks netminder besides two-appearance goalie Georgi Romanov to boast a positive. Yaroslav Askarov, now in the AHL, has a +0.95.

Blackwood and Askarov have a combined 10-15-5 record, meaning the Sharks have earned points in half their decisions.

Vitek Vanecek has a -7.99, fifth-worst in the NHL, and Alexandar Georgiev has a -6.59, just with the Sharks, 10th-worst in the league.

They’re a combined 5-20-2.

Goals Saved Above Expected suggests that Blackwood has saved about three more goals than he should have — and Vanecek has given up about eight more than he should have.

That looks like at least a few points lost because of the goaltending.

It’s not an exact science, and obviously, San Jose’s defensive environment isn’t conducive to success between the pipes — I’m not trying to lay everything at the feet of Vanecek and Georgiev.

But these stats do tell, I think, an accurate story of the San Jose Sharks’ season: Blackwood and Askarov have been able to rise above an admittedly weak, albeit improved, team defense. Vanecek and Georgiev have not.

And the Sharks’ record is the poorer for it.