San Jose Barracuda
Was Granlund Trade Right or Wrong Move?
The San Jose Sharks have traded Mikael Granlund and Cody Ceci to the Dallas Stars. Was it the right move?
Spoiler: Sheng and Keegan don’t agree! (2:30)
Speaking of Granlund’s leadership, there are different types of leadership. How does Granlund compare to recently-dealt J.T. Miller in that regard? (22:43)
Are there more moves to come for the San Jose Sharks, could they do something with the Stars’ first-round pick? (25:15)
More on Granlund’s influence on the younger Sharks. (38:30)
Keegan worries about how a San Jose contract with Granlund would’ve aged. (45:30)
How is this different than the Mackenzie Blackwood situation? (1:01:22)
What does the rest of the season look like for San Jose Sharks fans? (1:13:30)
All that, and more on this EMERGENCY San Jose Hockey Now Podcast!
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Keegan is spot on with his points. I am a bit surprised by Sheng’s arguments because they sound more emotional rather than logical. Mike Grier put a price on his two assets and Dallas stepped up to pay his price. This team and organization needs more high end young talent and not extending aged players, even good players who are good people. No doubt, Granlund especially, but Codi Ceci as well, will definitely be missed but this was necessary.
im surprised mikes price that he set in stone didn’t involve a prospect. Right?
There’s a human element to team-building, for sure.
But I don’t see my argument as emotional, more, there’s a point where you put more weight to adding to your team with the right guys. I think the Sharks with Celebrini, a foundational place, you put more weight to adding the right guys around him than chasing picks. I don’t apply this to every veteran, but Granlund for sure I think of as being a right guy, both on and off the ice.
One can say that last years team had a few of the “wrong” types of players.
I agree that Granlund was/is an ideal “right” type of player anyone would want on their team. My rebuttal is that this league is full of the “right” type of players or they would not be in the NHL. There are plenty of opportunities to find another “right” type of player that is better suited for the current timeline.
At least that’s my takeaway from GMMG words & actions.
fwiw, I tend to hate the argument of “a weak draft class.” I think ‘weak draft class’ tends to refer to the players at or near the top. Not the depth, which is much trickier to assess. For example, the 2020 draft class isn’t particularly good at the top (Lafreniere as 1st overall, Byfield at 2). But it also had JJ Peterka and Brock Faber in rd 2. Ridley Greig late in rd 1. Go down any draft considered ‘weak’ and there’s almost always a decent number of late 1st, early 2nd players who’ve done quite well. Sharks will have… Read more »
It’s hard to get excited about late first round picks that have an eta of 2029, next season is going to be another lottery year it’s getting hard to take
The last time the Sharks had a late first they turned it into Askarov.
I wouldn’t say that Askarov has proved to be a steady No.1 NHL goalie. Much less an elite one ….yet. The only piece we have that we can actually take to the bank for the next 5 years atleast is Mack
Askarov is going to be a legit #1goalie. There is a reason several goaltenders have done poorly in SJ, only to go to another team and thrive. The Sharks have a defensive group that needs to be improved majorly! They are starting to get an influx of young and talented defensemen, but they are likely 2-3 season away from having a good defense. The offense will help pick up the slack during the next 2-3 seasons, but that’s how far we are away from being a legit playoff contender. Have patience. Grier is doing a tremendous job that will pay… Read more »
Specifically, the scouts I talked to were saying weak to average in depth, in the 20’s where the Stars pick will land.
There’s a lot of hindsight in your analysis. Obviously, there are good players late in any draft.
But an NHL scout has to do his best to make a judgment about it now. That informs how much his GM values their 1st. If consensus was that this was a deep draft into the 20’s, I’m sure the Stars would’ve been more reluctant to part with their 1st in this trade.
And I’ll be just as blunt. I strongly suspect we only figure out how good (or not) these drafts are in hindsight. I’ll admit I haven’t done the work, but I’d bet that the “weak draft” sorts are right about half the time. Coin flip territory. There are so many errors and misses, its hard to take it seriously beyond the top half of round 1. I’ll offer this. Drafting well really is hard. You’re trying to predict what 17 and 18 year olds are going to do when they’re 22. Past obvious top talent, it’s INHERENTLY a task loaded… Read more »
Also, I’d be OK if Sharks pursue Granlund in FA and overpay. 2yrs, $17mil. He’s not getting close to that AAV in a longer term deal. Not sure what GMMG indicated to Granlund and his agent about what might happen (still think there’s gotta be some league rules against this) if he got to FA. But I’d be fine with a short term overpay.
I have been considering this, I am sure there are league rules of some sort, but since this thing rarely occurs, I do wonder, how deep. I did find it peculiar that MGGM did not seem to have specific contract talks. That could be the loop hole. Blackwood seemed like they had a more specific discussion, and were too far apart. so perhaps with out beginning formalized talks, that opens a situation where MGGM can say “ we absolutely love you, this is a way to show you that by giving you a chance to go make a run. If… Read more »
I’m not sure at the point about not having a good team last season. Tear downs are never going to look good. He did what he had to do. He deserves credit for last season, not criticism.
Fair enough point about whether he can rebuild a team. That is the skill the Sharks need in a GM. We’ll all find out together.
Sheng not liking the trade isn’t very surprising. He definitely loves his vet players. Only thing that would have made this worse for him is if it was Kunin not Ceci that was traded haha.
Sharks will have 28 games without Granlund. I think the guys will survive without him. The Sharks have tons of cap space in the offseason, so they can bring in some more vet leadership.
Even when this losing phase was about 5 games in and it was clear this wasn’t a fringe playoff team, I’ve felt like trading the vets was the right move. Honestly, I think the message to the kids would be worse if Grier insisted on keeping this frankly ineffective team together and not trying to get better in either the short or the long term. I really feel like doing nothing was the worst option Grier could have chosen. Out of his other two options, make the current team better was obviously not great either. So build for the future!… Read more »
F them picks we need prospects. We need to have players that can play soon
🙄
I just want a cup. Whatever gets me a cup is what I want the team to do. The really open championship window starts in 2 years when Macklin is 21 and Smith 22 and everyone is off the books. So there’s a little time to figure it all out.
But I think Grier has proven that he will jump on a situation if it comes up. He’s done a lot to earn our trust.
So do the fans in VAN & BUF & they’ve been wanting one for more than 50 years!
And you’ve been a SJS fan for how long?
Unfortunately the NHL is not part of the instant gratification culture, it requires a lot of patience, Grasshopper.
Since about 1993, being from the Bay Area, I didn’t know much about hockey when the Sharks started up, so it took me a year or two to figure out what was happening and that this sport was awesome.
Being a fan of the Giants, Cal, and the Warriors as well, I’m quite familiar with long waits for things.
But not much difference between 30 and 50 years, I’m not saying being a Canucks fan isn’t hard, but I am saying I want a Cup. It’s pretty simple.
We all want the same thing but my time is running out. I just hope I live long to see it.
Spoiled in the 70’s w/ the A’s winning Championships
Spoiled in the 80’s w/ the 49ers & Raiders winning SBs
Spoiled in the 10’s w/ Giants & Warriors winning Championships
Patty & Jumbo era came close but SJS are the only team I have yet see win it all.
So that 20 years can be a big diff.
The best one can reasonably hope for is to credibly compete for championships and hope that it happens along the way.
Sharks had about 12-15 seasons of being credible contenders. That is a lot of success. Unfortunate that a championship didn’t happen. There was a big window, but something always stood in the way.
All due respect to the process but Mike Grier and the sharks have not done anything to earn my trust. In fact they have been the worst team in the league. At some point we’re going to have to compete with our peers
Also need to have a long term pipeline of cheaper guys that pop in and contribute, when you are a playoff team. But it is a little early, never know what happens to that pick, especially with evidence that MGGM is willing to use those a trade enhancers.
I completely agree with Sheng on this. We lost more in terms of what Granlund can deliver (producive top 6 + leadership + mentor + wants to play in SJ) versus what we received, basically a 28th ish pick in the first round of a not-very-deep draft and a throwaway 4th round pick. Unless we can packge these picks up for a legit NHL ready prospect or player (i.e.NJD right dman Simon Nemec), then I think this is a missed opportunity. The Sharks have lots of money and cap space but it’s going to be diffcult to lure a Top… Read more »
I don’t think it’ll be easy to find the right player to slot into the Sharks top six to take Granlund’s place next year, but I am hopeful that Celebrini’s rookie performance will be enough to make San Jose a more attractive UFA destination going forward.
The leadership vacuum will be filled by Celebrini. He was born for this and I expect him to wear the C next year.
Not until Couture retires or his contract is up.
I couldn’t disagree with this more… I know this was said by Grier recently, but I’m putting zero stock in it. I’d wager C is for Celebrini starting next year.
Toffoli, Goodrow, Wennberg, and Vlasic are still here. There is still vet presence. It’s a long 28 games, but they couldn’t turn this down. If they had this pick when Jiricek was available, they could have gotten him. Maybe they get Nemec. Maybe someone else. Maybe the cap space this clears allows them to take players as 3rd parties in deals and get even more. They can take on a LOT of money and maybe there are multiple more picks they can pull in. The more I think about it, the more I buy exactly none of Sheng’s arguments. This… Read more »
Granlund for 4 years is a terrible idea. The Sharks couldn’t do that, it didn’t fit.
I don’t like losing Granlund at all, but I do think it was a good trade for San Jose. Yes Granlund has a unique leadership style, and it will absolutely leave a void in the Sharks room. Voids create opportunity, and I think its less about exact leadership style, and more about willingness to step up. The voices to help these kids are in the room, and they’re in the organization and in Smith/Celebrini’s case they are literally in the house! It won’t be the same, but the resources and experience are still there to guide them. Its now Grier’s… Read more »
Goodrow + Toffoli + Wennberg is a leadership group. GMMG got thise guys for that task! And not far from the ice, Jumbo, Marleau, Clowe, Ricci. There’s enough leadership to go around. Ultimately, the players have to find it within themselves. Still think the Sharks might be best off treating the remainder of the season as an extended practice. Games, instead of focusing on winning per se, focus on a specific skill such as breakouts or taking pucks of the wall. Probably can make 2-3 specific points of emphasis in any given game — and live with the result on… Read more »
I agree about the focus for the rest of the season. The goal, at least short term, has to be “stop collapsing” rather than win games. Don’t worry so much about the scoreboard and just focus on making your next shift better than the last one.
It’s that “next shift” mentality that matters the most for their current and future development IMO
A year ago, I was arguing that Granlund was a really good player and his $5mil deal was an asset, not a drawback. Was he worth a 1st last season? To me, absolutely. Did anything major change in his game? Not much. He was really good last season, and really good this season. At a favorable AAV. He had a slow start to last season (injured in game 1 iirc), but took off shortly after he returned. From that point forward, he was really good, easily exceeding his AAV. $5million for Granlund was great value, both last season and this.… Read more »
fwiw, I’d offer up this as the question to answer about ANY move the Sharks make: Does this move make the team better beginning in 2028 and beyond? I’d argue the Granlund deal does that. It main benefit is likely in years beyond 2028, but that’s a reasonable timeframe to expect the Sharks to be legit playoff team and perhaps fringe Cup contenders. To be serious contenders, you want a team that will have a good decade — and hope they break through and win a Cup or 3 during that window. 2028 is the beginning of the window. I’ll… Read more »
I disagree with Sheng this time. First thing is that I would totally be ok with the Sharks signing Granlund for 3-4 years for all of the reasons Sheng listed. That said, if you take away his name, would any of us be happy with the Sharks signing a 33 year old, less than a point per game player at this stage of their rebuild? I don’t think so. Also, I know Sheng kept saying this was a fair trade but not an over payment but if I recall, until the trade happened I believe Sheng kept saying he’d anticipate… Read more »
would any of us be happy with the Sharks signing a 33 year old, less than a point per game player at this stage of their rebuild? I don’t think so. You just described Tyler Toffoli? These type of players are necessary in a rebuild too. As for Granlund’s valuation, player valuations change from year to year. I think Granlund was at best a 2nd last year, 2024 Trade Deadline, teams weren’t as sure about him after a rough 2022-23, not sure enough to commit to his 2024-25 contract. One year later, he’s the same exact player pretty much, and… Read more »
Thanks for the response Sheng. I still am ok with the deal but I get your points. That said, I think you are over valuing Granlunds value and potential impact to the team over the next 4 years. And maybe Granlund was open to resigning with the Sharks, but Grier’s price was hit before this mini-deadline of the 4 nations. I just don’t know that the over payment was available and just because Granlund was open to signing didn’t mean that he would have before the trade deadline. Granlund is a piece around the edges for an emerging team but… Read more »
That was last year, this is this year. Toffoli signed with an org that just had one of the worst seasons in NHL history. Macklin was good, but he was no Bedard, right? Wrong. Now, Macklin is the number 1 guy under 23 in the whole NHL and the Sharks have a bunch more where that came from along with a top 4 pick in this draft. The situation is a LOT more enticing, and oh by the way, San Jose is one of the nicest places in the entire NHL if you’re Canadian and like a quiet place but… Read more »
Fair points Sheng! I agree that the return was fair and GMMG got what he was hoping to get. I also agree with all the intangibles you pointed out. To add to your points, does anyone know what 2nd/3rd line centers will even be available in the offseason? As fans we don’t know and I bet you might have a better handle on it than we do as you have sources we do not. In addition, if the cap does increase by 7.5 million would this not allow some cash strapped contenders the ability to sign some players they would… Read more »
I’ve definitely been on the fence about whether to trade or keep Granlund all season long, and only just recently softened on the idea of moving him. That was mostly because it just seemed like the market was shaping up to be competitive for high end rentals like Granlund, and I figured the Sharks were pretty much guaranteed to get a first rounder for him. I’m happy with the price acquired, though I don’t disagree that it’s debatable whether a late first outweighs the benefit of simply extending him — especially given that he was willing to stay. As you… Read more »
One of the odd challenges the Sharks are going to face is that GMMG is going to need to spend a lot of money.
Including Granlund and Ceci, there’s $30million coming off the cap from this year to next. The year after, its another $25mil. By 2028, there’s only Toffoli and Hertl’s cap retention hit left. In 2029, its literally just Hertl’s cap hit.
The roster is going to re-shape a lot over the next few seasons.
Hypothetical… What does it take to get Nemec? Is Walman straight up too much or too little? I don’t think picks move the needle from NJ’s side of things, they are trying to win a Cup.
If Granlund probably isn’t part of the Sharks’ cup timeline, is Walman?
This is a real question, just trying to see how people view this. There’s no way this 1 plus a 2,3,4 brings back Nemec
Nemec is only (potentially) available because of NJ’s logjam at D. Walman isn’t who they’d want.
A lot of assumptions are being made that Nemec is on the block, but I think they’re a lot more likely to move Casey and keep developing Nemec. If he were available, the Devils would probably want an NHL player that helps them now plus a premium forward prospect. Kunin, Musty and the Dallas first might work.
Pronman mentioned Nemec and Casey as guys possibly available, so it’s not just no life hockey nerds like us saying that, haha
A package with this 1 could have returned Jiricek earlier this year, and if New Jersey wants “NOW” guys, Walman is much closer to that, though they might be trying to get a heavy power forward or something rather than another LHD. I need to make friends with Grier so I can learn this stuff and help him with deals. Just kidding, everyone.
Would be nice to get Nemec. Am very curious what Grier has up his sleeve. I am hoping this move and last weeks moves are a predicate for something in the near future.
Too early to pass judgment on the deal until we see what comes of the pick – whether it’s part of a trade for an established player or an NHL-ready prospect, or someone unexpectedly falls to them in the draft. Let Grier play this out, then hate or love the move. With that, I agree Granlund will be sorely missed in the short term and it seems doubtful he’ll come back now that he’s gone. I probably would have supported a 2 year overpay contract as has been discussed. But perhaps, ultimately, this pick turns into a cornerstone piece of… Read more »
Sheng is putting way too much weight on Granny’s willingness to stay in SJ. Any vet player that wants to stay with a losing, rebuilding team & NOT chase a Cup, one has to question that.
GMMG did what he had to do & got a decent return.
If SJS walks away from the 25′ Draft w/ Schaefer (1), Fiddler (midi-20s) & Trethewey (33), I would be estactic
So you question Toffoli? Wennberg?
Toffs already got one, it’s very nice. Wennberg on a 2-yr deal knows he can get moved to a better team. Plus I bet he’s not getting $5M anywhere else other than in SJ.
Toffoli has 2 cups and he was tired of getting traded and uprooting his family. The combo of playing with the kids and mentoring them, while also having a steady environment for his family, those were the factors he was valuing most. The Sharks were lucky to get him. Wennberg liked the fact that the Sharks offered him the most money. He’s not made of stone. I think there will be room for at least 3 more 2 year deals like what the Sharks gave Wennberg and maybe a 4 year overpay deal for the right guy (Ekblad Ekblad Ekblad… Read more »
2 Cups for Toffs? 1 in 2014 w/LA, please name the other.
Keep dreaming about Ekblad, he ain’t coming anywhere near SJ.
Not really sure what points you’re making because the smartassery is thick. Thanks for pointing out Toffoli was only on one of the Kings teams, I couldn’t remember.
I’m on record knowing full well Ekblad is unrealistic, so know-it-all-ed-ness is wasted here too.
But hockey players are known to like money and the Sharks will have a lot of it to throw around. How’s that for deep insight?
Ekblad has also won a cup, and he’s made tens of millions of dollars in a tax free state with good weather. If Florida decides to let him walk, San Jose could easily be an attractive destination to him, especially since he addresses their greatest weakness.
If it happens, I think you owe Kads a beer. I know I’ll buy a round.
lol, I’d drink to that. Because I’m a loser with no life, I checked Florida’s cap situation and they are a very well run team. I now think it’ll take as much as 8/$100M to pry Ekblad loose. I know it sounds crazy, and I’d need to see what guys are going to reach free agency in the next two years, plus I’d want to understand exactly what Ekblad’s injury history looks like, but I think I’d sign him to that deal if the opportunity should arise. The guy checks literally every box. He’s even a right handed stick.
That seems a bit rich, Ekblad is a very good player but he’s not an elite top pairing defenseman. I think he’s probably looking at a max term of six years, more likely five, at an AAV well under $10M.
If San Jose came in with a four year, $40M offer I think he’d jump.
You’re right, I was overrating his D a bit. I do think 4/40 is a nice overpay and it would be difficult for him to turn that down. 3/33 might be even more enticing for him because it would allow him to sign one more deal in his career when the cap is much higher than today
Crazy what a defensive contribution Florida gets from their forwards now that I dive into it. That whole team plays such a tight 200 foot game, I’m jealous
Potsy deserves a callup, plus he used to play for Warso in CHI/AHL. His callup may hurt the Cuda playoff chances but no one else is ready.
Muhk should be called up as well, maybe Lucas Carlson gets a look, who knows.
Potsy might deserve a callup but I think GMMG will call up players that have a future with the Sharks.
Also, Potsy would leave a gaping hole down the middle of the Cuda.
IMO GMMG wants the Cuda to make a deep playoff run.
Notice the moves he made last week. They were thought of as minor but those two players sure will come in handy now.
It’s almost as if GMMG might have known a move like this was coming.
It’s almost as if there’s a plan!
Vanacek will be back shortly as well and I expect Askarov to be in net for that deep Cuda playoff run attempt as well.
I don’t expect Celebrini or Smith to spend any time in the AHL though.
One thing that sticks out to me, we don’t see this know Granlund as an overpayment. But if you are asking for more than a first for Granny (who I love) you are expecting him to get a Elias Lindholm return and that is just not Granlund’s reputation in this league. This team isnt as far along than we hope, out rebuild on D is way behind. We got an asset that we could trade for something that moves this ship forward. this was a offer that couldn’t be refused given that the sharks are maybe 3-5 years from even… Read more »
I say that while completely agreeing with Sheng and I struggle to see how you put a better team on the ice next year without Granlund. He’s going to be a lot harder to replace than a lot are given him credit for
Using money, we could just get Granny back, that’s the worst case. I completely agree with Keegan when he notes that it’s well-established that this team with Granny is very very far from good enough. I’d rather go a different direction and add some heavyness to this lineup and tilt the ice back our direction. Our D is just getting smushed in our own zone and it’s basically PTSD with those haphazard attempts to clear the puck. As an aside, I think the team missed Kostin a little more than we thought they would. He’s the only guy that other… Read more »
I’m on the fence with this one. Tremendous value in keeping Granny as a mentor and I agree with Sheng on that point, particularly given that he wants to stay with a bad team. Speaks volumes. That said, Grier hasn’t shown us what the 1st and 4th will become from this otherwise fair value trade. Obviously Grier knows Granny’s value to the room too. Let’s see where this goes. For Ceci, last year’s trade with Edmonton pretty much turned into what we thought it would. I wish them both well.
It’s only 28 games though, it’s not like Granny was holding his best tips for the stretch run. It’s better with him, obviously, but this was a good return and Granny probably wants 4/$28M and the Sharks should absolutely not do that. I would do 2/$15m, though. That’s an overpay, but he’d be off the books when the Sharks need that money back
Sheng, I have to assume you know something that you can’t share. Like Keegan, I am becoming very frustrated with your insistence that Granlund both wants to be in San Jose and will not sign back here in the summer. Those two statements don’t match up. If the truth is that he would be “OK” with staying in San Jose for a big bag of money (4×7.5? 3×8?), the sharks can offer him that big bag of money in the summer. I think the main reason you never see players return to teams that traded them away is that either… Read more »
I shared what I strongly believe in this case, based on sourcing, that Granlund liked it here and would’ve considered a team-friendly contract (in length, not AAV). I say “believe” just to be careful, since “know” implies 100 percent certainty, which I can’t say (I could be getting fed one-sided info), especially since I’m not Granlund or Grier. In terms of your frustration, I think you’re looking at it in too black & white of a way. It’s degrees of want. It’s not as simple as you want to be here, you’ll be here. It never is. You need to… Read more »
I will echo many people here in stating that I think this was a good trade to make. I personally think they got very good value for Granlund. However that is partly because I have a hard time believing Ceci was worth much of anything.
We know Ceci had negative value 6 months ago. Since then he has played poorly (not entirely his fault). While teams do have more cap space at the deadline, most teams are still very tight against the ceiling. The sharks couldn’t retain salary.
It was the right move. You don’t go and spend a lot of money on a 32 year old player during a rebuild. Grier got the assets he needs to build this team up to a playoff contender. It may take a couple of more seasons to see, but Grier has made some tremendous moves thus far and I trust in his vision for this teams’ success.
This is the third time I’ve said here, I think, so do you think Toffoli was a wasted expenditure? In a rebuild, yes, you need to be careful with how you spend your money. But you also need to balance that by creating a winning environment for your precious prospects to grow up in, especially when you’ve introduced a sure-fire cornerstone prospect like Celebrini to the ecosystem. That takes money, as we saw with Toffoli. So you spend money, but wisely. Specifically, you try not to butt up too much against the next, potentially huge contracts of Celebrini, Askarov, etc.,… Read more »
I know you think the Toffoli situation is the same Sheng, but I think the difference is they Toffoli signed as a FA. I know Granlund has said he wanted to stay but do you know that for certain or is it possible he was just saying the right thing and the Grier got a sense from his side that it wasn’t a sure thing he’d sign before the deadline?
It wasn’t just saying the right thing. I wouldn’t have reported it as I have, if I wasn’t fairly certain.
Like I’m not Granlund, so I can’t say it’s like 200 percent certain. But I trust my source on it enough, a proven source, so I have no hesitation reporting it.
Mike Grier’s greatest virtue as a GM is that he is willing to do what needs to be done instead of what fans and media want him to do. Every fanbase and local media overvalue their own guys and want to hang onto everybody that’s having a good season. I still remember the salt after Erik Karlsson was moved after a Norris-winning season (ironically, the move that brought Granlund here.) Look how that has worked out. It’s hard to pry a first-round pick away in a mid-season trade these days, and to do it for guys like Granlund and Ceci… Read more »