What Should Sharks Expect From Celebrini’s First Season, His Career?

What should the San Jose Sharks expect from Macklin Celebrini’s career?

Here’s what first-overall pick history, going back to the beginning of the modern NHL Draft in 1969, tells us.

Hall of Fame?

There have been 54 No. 1 picks since 1969.

Nine are in the Hall of Fame: Gilbert Perreault (1970), Guy Lafleur (1971), Denis Potvin (1973), Dale Hawerchuk (1981), Mario Lemieux (1984), Pierre Turgeon (1987), Mike Modano (1988), Mats Sundin (1989), and Eric Lindros (1991).

Joe Thornton (1997), Alex Ovechkin (2004), Sidney Crosby (2005), Patrick Kane (2007), Steven Stamkos (2008), John Tavares (2009), Nathan MacKinnon (2013), Connor McDavid (2015), and Auston Matthews (2016) should be certain Hall of Famers right now too.

Some of the more recent first-overall picks, let’s say from 2017 on, haven’t had a chance to build up their resumes.

So let’s judge from 1969 to 2016: There have been 46 first-overall picks. From Rejean Houle (1969) to Matthews, that’s 18 Hall of Famers.

By that standard, that gives Celebrini a 39 percent chance to be a Hall of Famer.

About two of five first-overall picks, those are pretty odds for the San Jose Sharks.

Career Points?

How many points will Celebrini score over his entire career?

Based on No. 1 pick forwards whose NHL careers are over — a lot.

From Rejean Houle in 1969 to Nail Yakupov in 2012, these 25 first-overall forwards have averaged 850 points over their careers, Lemieux’s 1,723 is tops, while Yakupov’s 136 is the low.

Nine forwards, Perreault, Lafleur, Bobby Smith, Hawerchuk, Lemieux, Turgeon, Modano, Sundin, and Thornton, have surpassed 1,000 points.

Adjusted for era, per Hockey Reference, that still averages to 822 adjusted points, Thornton’s 1,692 the high and Yakupov’s 174 the low.

Nine forwards have surpassed an adjusted 1,000 points: The same as above, except Vinny Lecavalier for Smith.

That’s about a 36 percent chance for Celebrini to surpass 1,000 points.

This isn’t counting active No. 1 picks like Ovechkin, Crosby, Kane, Stamkos, and Tavares, who have already surpassed that mark.

So once again, the odds are pretty good for the San Jose Sharks.

Celebrini’s First Season?

What will Celebrini do in his first year with the San Jose Sharks?

38 first-overall pick forwards played near-full seasons in the same year that they were drafted. They’ve averaged 20 goals, 25 assists, and 45 points, Hawerchuk the high with 103 points in 1981-82, Thornton the low with seven points in 1997-98.

For what it’s worth, these 38 forwards averaged 0.68 Points Per Game, which translates to 56 points over a full 82-game campaign.

Tempering expectations, Thornton and Jack Hughes (21 points) are examples of future superstars who struggled in their first turn in the NHL as teenagers.

Adjusted for era, per Hockey Reference, that’s still 20 goals, 25 assists, and 45 points.

How about Celebrini’s odds of winning the Calder Trophy?

No. 1 picks Perreault (1971), Potvin (1974), Smith (1979), Hawerchuk (1982), Lemieux (1985), Bryan Bedard (1997), Ovechkin (2006), Kane (2008), MacKinnon (2014), Aaron Ekblad (2015), Matthews (2017), and Connor Bedard (2024).

That’s 12 first-overall selections of 53, so a 23 percent chance.

Again, solid odds for the San Jose Sharks!