Sheng Peng
The trades are coming! The trades are coming!
Thursday’s Viktor Arvidsson swap promises to be the first of many as teams position themselves for the July 21st expansion draft.
Essentially, Nashville, instead of losing the skilled Arvidsson for nothing to the Seattle Kraken, sent the winger to Los Angeles for 2021 second-round and 2022 third-round picks. The Predators aren’t going to be the only team that chooses to sell low on an asset instead of losing it to Seattle.
Could the San Jose Sharks make like the Kings and undercut the Kraken too?
In April, Doug Wilson stated that San Jose would be looking to improve themselves at third-line center and in goal.
He added: “We are in a really good position to get through expansion, not only get through it, but also use it as an opportunity to potentially add some players that other teams might have to make available.”
The Sharks could also boast some serious cap space if they buy out Martin Jones — I project about $10 million dollars space for a center and two goalies.
So who are some potential third-line centers and starting goalies that might be available via trade before the expansion draft?
Let’s take a look at pivots today, netminders later.
It should be noted, if the San Jose Sharks trade for any of these centers, they’ll probably protect this forward from Seattle. This would change their current projected expansion protected list of Logan Couture, Evander Kane, Timo Meier, Tomas Hertl, Kevin Labanc, Rudolfs Balcers, and Jonathan Dahlen.
Are these centermen worth the risk of possibly losing a prospect like Dahlen?
Yanni Gourde
The 29-year-old is signed for four more years with a $5.166 million dollar cap hit. He has a no-trade clause right now that becomes a limited NTC in July 2022.
It’s an embarrassment of riches in Tampa Bay, on the verge of back-to-back Stanley Cups: If the Lightning opt to protect eight skaters and a goalie, as projected, instead of seven forwards, three defensemen, and a goalie, that means they could potentially expose forwards Gourde, Alex Killorn, Ondrej Palat, and Tyler Johnson.
If you’re Seattle, that’s a lot to choose from.
If Tampa Bay opts to go 4-4-1, it might make more sense to just bite the bullet and lose one of these forwards for nothing to the Kraken. It’ll give them some cap breathing room, and they’ll still come out with three of the four. So it seems like a longshot that they would both lose a top-nine forward in the expansion draft and trade another one.
But if the Lightning want to give themselves even more cap flexibility by losing two of the aforementioned forwards, the San Jose Sharks could be a willing partner.
Acquiring Gourde would be an opportunity for Doug Wilson to right a past wrong.
Considering San Jose’s cap space, Gourde would be a little expensive for 3C. But it’s a fair price for an all-situations, tough minutes pivot who could probably be a second-line center on a lot of teams.
Alex Kerfoot
The 26-year-old is signed for two more years with a $3.5 million cap hit.
Toronto’s expansion draft question appears to be between protecting Kerfoot or defenseman Justin Holl. If they go with Holl, Kerfoot should be able to draw something in trade before July 21st.
The 5-foot-11 forward, however, may not be a great match for 3C. He might be better suited for wing and wasn’t tasked with the toughest minutes as a Maple Leaf.
On the other hand, he’s a little bit of an offensive sleeper, as he didn’t get a lot of time on the power play this year — Sheldon Keefe recast him as a regular penalty killer. He was a PP regular before.
The Sharks could definitely use more punch on their second (any) power play unit.
Chris Tierney
The 27-year-old is signed for one more year with a $3.5 million cap hit.
There’s obvious familiarity here: The San Jose Sharks drafted Tierney in the second round in 2012 before trading him for Erik Karlsson in 2018.
He also wouldn’t cost much if anything: He’s appears to be on the outs in Ottawa after suffering a tough 2020-21.
The hope here is that Tierney can regain his 2017-20 form, when he averaged more than half a point a game. Like Kerfoot, it’ll help if he can get on the power play: He was a mainstay on San Jose and Ottawa’s man advantages from 2017-20, not so much this year.
He also endured the toughest zone starts of his career this season: Per Evolving Hockey, he had the highest percentage of defensive zone faceoffs and the lowest percentage of offensive zone faceoffs at 5-on-5 among Senators centers. More balanced usage could certainly unlock a more productive Tierney.
Tierney wouldn’t be a very exciting pick-up, but at his best, he checks a lot of the boxes that you want from a two-way 3C.
Victor Rask
The 28-year-old is signed for one more year with a $4 million cap hit.
A whipping boy in Minnesota because the Wild traded Nino Niederreiter for him, Rask rallied from consecutive down campaigns to regain a regular NHL role. His 10 goals were his most since 2017-18.
That said, Minnesota probably pays you to take his contract.
Rask is not a great fit for the San Jose Sharks though: He’s definitely more offensively-oriented, in terms of his zone starts and heavy PP/light PK usage.
In his April exit interview, Wilson bemoaned Couture’s defensive load this season. So he won’t want an offensive specialist like Rask.
J.T. Compher
The 26-year-old is signed for two more years with a $3.5 million cap hit.
Compher is overpaid a little, but he’s a legitimate all-situations centerman. To his credit, no Colorado forward had a higher percentage of defensive zone faceoffs than Compher — he’s a big part of why the Nathan MacKinnon line can run wild, because he and Pierre-Edouard Bellemare and Nazem Kadri take the lionshare of DZ starts for the Avs.
But anyway, Joe Sakic has too much talent: Under a 7-3-1 protection scheme, he’s faced with losing Compher or Joonas Donskoi or Ryan Graves.
Going back to Yanni Gourde, like Tampa Bay, it might behoove Colorado to simply bite the bullet and give up a single quality player for nothing to Seattle, which will allow the Avalanche to at least keep two of Compher, Donskoi, or Graves.
On the other hand, with Cale Makar’s extension looming this summer, Sakic might welcome even more cap relief.
Tierney and Compher seem to be fairly similar comparables as more defensively-oriented all situations third-line centers. For what it’s worth, Tierney’s quality of competition this season was a bit tougher than Compher’s. Tierney is also, historically, much better on the draw.
Adam Henrique
The 31-year-old is signed for three more years with a $5.825 million cap hit.
Okay, so Henrique has a lot of strikes against him: He’s older, too expensive, and San Jose could’ve plucked him off waivers in February.
On the other hand: Would the Ducks, not that close to competing, retain some salary and add sweeteners for the Sharks to tackle the rest of Henrique’s contract?
Henrique is still an all situations player, great on faceoffs, who’s tasked with hard minutes against tough competition. For what it’s worth, he’s also enjoyed a robust 1.9 Points Per 60 at 5-on-5 over the last two years. That would rank third on the San Jose Sharks, behind Hertl and Meier, over that time.
Henrique also had 11 points in just 10 World Championships games, a big part of Team Canada’s surprise gold. So maybe he just needs something to play for?
His term and age are obviously scary for a San Jose squad loaded with bad contracts. But there’s no doubt the vet still has gas left in the tank.
Nic Dowd
The 31-year-old is signed for one more year with a $750,000 cap hit.
Dowd has been a fourth-line center for pretty much his entire career, but to his credit, he’s become a really, really good one, perhaps the best 4C in the league. Maybe he deserves a shot at a bigger role?
If the San Jose Sharks are looking for someone to take the defensive load off Couture, look no further than Dowd: His 55.99 Defensive Zone Faceoff % at 5-on-5 is the toughest among all league forwards. This, coupled with his NHL-least 9.8 Offensive Zone Faceoff %, means no forward in the league sees both less OZ and more DZ faceoffs than Dowd.
Basically, for every OZ faceoff that Dowd earns, he gets smacked with almost 6 DZ faceoffs. That’s almost comical — to everybody else except for Dowd, I guess.
Among Capitals centermen, nobody faced a higher quality of competition than Dowd too, according to Hockey Viz.
Somehow with this usage, Dowd managed 11 goals with next-to-no power play time last season. It’s probably an outlier, as he’s never scored double digits in his career.
But if San Jose thinks there’s some untapped offense — Dowd was an excellent playmaker in the AHL — it’s a pretty safe gamble because he’s on a bargain contract and has a high floor.
Okay, so that’s seven centers that the looming expansion draft might make available to the San Jose Sharks — we’ll look at goalies next.