San Jose Sharks
Sharks Lose 2025 Draft Lottery, Get No. 2 Pick
The San Jose Sharks have lost the 2025 Draft Lottery.
The worst team in the NHL had a 25.5 percent chance of getting the No. 1 pick in the 2025 Draft, the best odds in the league. But the New York Islanders, 10th-best odds for No. 1 at 3.5 percent, leapfrogged the Sharks to get the No. 1 pick.
The San Jose Sharks, at least, came out of the Draft Lottery with the No. 2 pick, and it could have been worse. San Jose could have got the third-overall pick, their worst possible landing spot.
Defenseman Matthew Schaefer appears to be the consensus No. 1, and the blueline is probably the organization’s greatest positional weakness.
“It’s probably a little forward-heavy,” San Jose Sharks GM Mike Grier admitted today about this year’s Draft, “after Schaefer.”
That leaves an enviable group of forward prospects, led probably by Saginaw Spirit center Michael Misa.
“He plays a good 200-foot game. He’s got a heavy stick, sees the ice well, can make plays. Played in all situations. Got a knack for scoring goals,” Grier said.
The Sharks, of course, already have Macklin Celebrini, 18, and Will Smith, 20, as the future of that position. But Grier was clear to say that had no bearing on the Sharks’ 2025 Draft plans: “I don’t think we’re at the point where we’re just going to draft for need. We’ll just pick the best player on our board when it’s our turn to pick, and whoever that player is, whether he’s a center, wing, or D-man, that’s the player we’ll take.”
Centers James Hagens and Anton Frondell, and winger Porter Martone, are other favorites to go in the top-five of the Draft.
This is how the 2025 Draft Lottery shook out, both the Islanders and Utah Hockey Club made huge jumps:
1. New York Islanders
2. San Jose Sharks
3. Chicago Blackhawks
4. Utah Hockey Club
5. Nashville Predators
6. Philadelphia Flyers
7. Boston Bruins
8. Seattle Kraken
9. Buffalo Sabres
10. Anaheim Ducks
11. Pittsburgh Penguins
12. New York Rangers (or Vancouver Canucks)
13. Detroit Red Wings
14. Columbus Blue Jackets
15. Vancouver Canucks
16. Montreal Canadiens (from the Calgary Flames)
Per the NHL: “Under the terms of a Jan. 31, 2025 trade between NY Rangers and Vancouver, NY Rangers will transfer their 1st-round pick in either the 2025 or 2026 NHL Draft to Vancouver, at NY Rangers’ option.”
The 2025 Draft Combine will be held in Buffalo from Jun. 1-7. The 2025 Draft will be held in Los Angeles on Jun. 27-28.
This is oddly written.
I don’t agree with that or framing this as the Sharks losing the draft. They didn’t win it. Their most likely pick to get was 3rd, and they beat that. This was a good result.
yup
Looking for more trade partners/targets than the Islanders/Dobson. Vancouver is in a bad spot. Rutherford has also spoken aloud that Hughes wants to play with his brothers. What he said was then the Canucks would have to get the other two Hughes’s, but that’s just not how it would ever work in this case. The Canucks are the ones in a position to start over, while the Devils are still trending toward their peak (they hope). GMs have certain guys they like to work with, have a relationship with, and we already know Grier can work with the Devils. This… Read more »
Feels like the Sharks would have to give up something more significant than Misa for those 3 players.
I guess it’s a good thing I said I was just listing the main things and the Sharks would have to give up more.
Doubt that trade ever happens, but I like the thought. We do not know if the Islanders are going to pick Schaefer as their prospect pools is one of the worst, if not the worst in the entire NHL. They need everything. So, they might pick Misa, who knows? They may even trade the pick for a haul. It is anyone’s guess. The beauty of it is GMMG gets either a top pair defenseman or a top line forward. It is a true win-win. I agree GMMG will pursue a defenseman via some form of acquisition. He has built the… Read more »
I posted this elsewhere, but I just wanted to point out how unlikely this draft lottery’s results were (and no, I don’t think it’s a conspiracy…much more unlikely things happen all the time).
35 out of 1,000 combos were for NYI, so the first pick had a 3.5% chance of happening. After that Utah had 15 out of 965 remaining combos (since if one of NYI’s was selected it would be run again), or 1.554%.
0.035*0.01554…*100% = 0.05440414508%, or 1-in-1,838.095
The thing is, the chances of winning the lottery are spread out pretty wide. The team with the best chance of winning the lottery only being like 18%…that’s not very good at all.
The chances that this particular set of winners hits is very low, but the chance that some really unlikely combo will hit is pretty high. Relatively. This is also one of the nuttier ones, but it’s one in a sea of very unlikely outcomes that all add up to a pretty good chance of occurring.
Fair enough. If we just look at the combination of two teams that are tenth or worse winning, those account for 135 of the 1,000 options.
The second lottery would have somewhere between 130/995 (13.06%) and 100/965 (10.36%) chance of happening depending on what the odds of the previous one happening were.
.135*.1306 * 100% = 1.76%
.135*.1036 * 100% = 1.40%
That means, at best you’d have a 1.76% chance of two teams between tenth and sixteenth best odds winning the lottery, or 1-in-56.70. That’s a big step up, but still not particularly likely.
I was arguably wearing the biggest tin hat out there and these results are improbable, but I can’t see any obvious signs of foul play. I would have wanted to inspect each ball for signs of scuffs or slight weight differences, but I was watching the balls in the machine and i didn’t see anything super obvious. I also can’t really see the league favoring these two teams in a sea of teams.that could use help. As I said, I was expecting the Rangers and Bruins to win. Bruins moved back two slots and Chicago moved out of the top… Read more »
I built a spreadsheet and was tracking all the possible scenarios for us as we went, but I forgot to add in other teams that weren’t able to pass us. When the last ball came up and it wasn’t ours, I walked out of the room for 5-10 minutes thinking we had the number 3 pick.
It was just a wonderful coincidence that seemed have helped the NHL and Gary Bettman personally avoid PR embarrassment over canceling the all-star game that Islanders were supposed to host. Just the day before, the New York state governor was calling out Gary Bettman publicly with an open letter on Twitter, pointing out New York state sunk $100 million into building the new arena, a very unlikely draft lottery win for the Islanders soothed tempers and defused a ugly PR disaster.
Lol. No doubt it’s just a very happy coincidence for everyone (especially Gary Bettman.)
It’s just a heck of a coincidence that right before the Islanders won the draft lottery New York state governor was blasting Gary Bettman for cancelling 2026 All-Star game that the Islanders were supposed to host. It’s not clear if the Islanders had any recourse as far as legal action, but it was brewing up to be a PR crap storm.
Then shortly after, the Islanders won a very unlikely draft lottery that seemed to have cooled the storm of outrage. But no doubt just a very happy coincidence…lol.
I know it doesn’t really pan out this way in terms of prospect development in terms of everyone hitting, but drafting Misa and projecting out our prospects just looks like so much fun.
Musty-Celebrini-Smith
Eklund-Misa-Chernyshov
That’s an extremely strong looking Top 6 with a nice blend of size and skill.
Where’s Toffoli?
This is talking about longterm and Toffoli’s 33 right now.
The outcome of this Lottery Draft was NUTS!!!
I grew up a Baltimore Bullets. later Washington Bullets fan They had back-to-back 2nd overall picks, having lost coin flips in back-to-back seasons. They wound up winning both drafts. 2nd overalls Earl Monroe and Wes Unseld both went to the Hall of Fame. Jimmy Walker taken ahead of Monroe had an OK career. Elvin Hayes, taken ahead of Unseld, wound up joining the Bullets. He’d also make the Hall of Fame and the Bullets won a championship with those 2, Unseld was the playoff MVP, also a regular season MVP and rookie of the year. Which is to say, picking… Read more »
I’m kind of happy that a team out of nowhere won the lottery.
Next season, I expect there will be a bunch of teams tempted to tank. The hope of being at the head of the line for a generational talent is so enticing.
But having a team leap from 10th to 1st — and Utah leaping from 14th to 4th — might cause a bit of a rethink.
That said, I do want the Sharks to land McKenna and if the odds favor them …
The odds won’t favor the Sharks enough to be remotely worth planning a whole other season of crappy results around.
The Islanders had 30 more points than the Sharks. 15 wins, essentially. And they finished 10th worst.
Buffalo had 27 more points and were 7th worst.
The point is the team can improve a LOT and still get a very, very good player next year. And maybe still get lucky.
I think something like three players have produced at the rate of Misa this century, all he has done is produce at a prolific rate and excelled in all three zones. I just see that kind of center being more important to a Stanley cup run than an offensive defensemen, and that is strictly based on history. I’m excited at the possibility of having a Anze kopitar, Jerome Iginla or Patrice Bergeron type center on my team.
I’m excited about having 2 of them …
The most impressive thing I saw at games this year was how Quinn Hughes controlled the game the first time Vancouver came through this year, when he was healthy. I think him and Makar are so insanely valuable. Nobody else is in that class, but Schaefer has that potential. Dickinson doesn’t, as good as he is. He’s not that. I would love to have one of those more than another elite forward. But given that there is no guarantee Schaefer achieves that and that it would take a few years to bear that fruit, I’m not too worked up that… Read more »
True dat, but this actual outcome may save Grier from overthinking who they want. Fate? Misa is not a bad outcome! If Grier can come up with a better plan, I’m in. But I think it will be hard to pass on Misa. The potential is gynormous and we need some big scoring form whomever we get. I wouldn’t say no to Draisatl!
That was not the most impressive thing by a long shot. McDavid being 25% faster than every other player and looking like a hummingbird zipping around the ice will always be the most impressive thing. That’s objective fact. I couldn’t believe what I was watching finally seeing him in person. After that, the impressive things I saw in no particular order were the severe ass whoopings that Washington and Florida, too very big teams, put on us at the tank. Dallas counter attacking and punishing every mistake was up there. Vegas wore the Sharks down to a nub every time… Read more »
The only game McDavid played in was the last game of the season. If you were in awe of a guy showing a few flashes while mailing it in and just trying not to get hurt, playing against another team that was already on vacation and just wanted the clock to run out, then you wanted to be.
So no, it’s not an objective fact.
Speed is speed. Pretty objective. If you’ve seen McDavid play in person, and I hadn’t before, then you know.
Oh wow 150lb Quinn sliced and diced the San Jose sharks in November, Makar led the Avs to the cup but I think that was just the Avs year, Tampa was running on fumes from holding Stanley cups over their heads to much. Just look at history and how Stanley cup teams are in actuality built.
Iginla was a winger, my man.
Ok Jerome type athleticism lol
fwiw, I had absolutely no clue what was going on with the lottery balls. I didn’t see the explanation up front, but my ability to interpret what the number on the selected ball meant was absolutely zero.
I’m fine with whatever outcome Grier can manufacture. I like the idea of Misa, like Schaefer and like moving the puck for what I assume would be an NHL ready defender. It’s a significantly valuable pick so Grier has lots of options. I would love to sit in on the strategy meetings for this off season to hear who their targets are. with McKenna in next years draft I could see multiple GMs tearing their teams apart this off season for the chance to draft him. I think that’ll help Grier get players from tanking teams and the it’ll help… Read more »
I feel the same way as you, and I doubt we feel different about the NHL defender needing to be elite to move off of Misa. The one thing I trust most is Grier and the Sharks brass are going to do the legwork and have their fingers in every pie. I’m confident that is there’s a team pulling off a deal like you’re saying with a team that has decided to rebuild, it’s going to be the Sharks. The creative and tireless work that Grier and team have put in have got us here. Assuming the ownership is going… Read more »
I’m not trying to rain on your parade, but the Sharks have been the worst team for 2 years in a row. Unless they can pull off some deals for vets to plug into defensive positions and maybe another forward, I don’t see them vying for a playoff spot for a few more years.
I read recently that only three teams in the history of the NHL have ever “won” the draft lottery two years in an row, and only one team, the Quebec Nordiques, has ever won the draft lottery three years in a row. As we know, the 2026 draft lottery is stacked, with a generational talent, Gavin McKenna, being the consensus No. 1 overall pick next year. I think GMMG’s plan is to tank next year again, and attempt to take a shot at the other GM, Gavin McKenna. If we “lose” the draft again, we still get a great player… Read more »
Bet you can’t come up with a single shred of evidence that the plan is to tank again.
If only there were a way to get players other than the draft.
🤣🤣🤣
Nothing about Grier’s comments over the past several months indicates he doesn’t plan to try to make this team a whole lot better this offseason. He specifically said the blue line needs a lot of work. Around the deadline this year, Grier said he thought the team would finish around 8th worst. Obviously he was way too optimistic, the team fell 28 points short of 8th worst. But I think if his goal is to do that this year, it would need to be because he improved the NHL team by 14 wins. That’s a lot. He’s going to need… Read more »
Dude, FFS Grier already stated they intend to not be sellers at next TDL which means they want to be in the playoff conversation at a minimum. Only way they end up with McKenna is if they have significant injuries that tank the season.
Right, and Grier publicly stated that he expected to make the playoffs last year, or at least be in the hunt. The Sharks were out of that conversation by when, December? With the salary cap going up next season, and with more competitive teams having more money to spend, I don’t see how San Jose is going to be a very attractive free agent destination. The dream that Mitch Marner or Aaron Ekblad are going to somehow want to sign with a last place team is fairly delusional in my opinion. High end players want to sign with teams that… Read more »
Playoffs seem a bit of a pipe dream when you have the worst team in the league for the past 2 years. Miracles do happen? Luck? All outcomes are possible but any predictive system is never going to back the Sharks being in the playoffs with any certainty.
Playoffs are definitely a pipe dream but I think Grier is talking aspirationally. I think his point is that’s the goal and the team is actively chasing for it. Realistically, I’m guessing Sharks will still be out of the last wild card by at least 10 points, but the point is to have an upward trajectory.
I don’t think they are planning to tank, but this team as it is constructed, will be another bottom dweller playing at full speed.
Hasso Plattner bought into the rebuild, but I’m pretty sure his patience is at an end. I was all for the tank-and-rebuild because it works in the salary-cap NHL. But for the ownership group, there is a point where it’s a business and you need to be competitive to make money in spectator sports. Grier has been good about sticking to his plan and his timeline. He has resisted trying to short-cut the rebuild by going on a spending spree. But the Sharks have a core and we’re at the part of the timeline where the team builds back up.… Read more »
The title seems a bit harsh. I don’t see it as a loss with 2nd pick. 3rd pick would have been a loss in my view. Winning the draft lottery 2 years in a row with a 25.5% chance each year yields 0.255 * 0.255 = 0.065 (6.5%) chance of winning the lottery both years. Not great odds. I think we’ll all be happy with Misa.
Shortly before the draft lottery, New York state governor Kathy Hochul published an open letter calling out Gary Bettman for canceling the 2026 All-Star game that the Islanders were supposed to host. Hochul pointed out that New York state sunk $100 million in taxpayer dollars in the Islanders new arena and the economic loss that will result. She wants the 27 all-star game, but of course Gary Bettman has other promises to fulfill like giving Seattle an event. It seems like our beloved commissioner is in a difficult spot. Then, less than 24 hours later, Islanders win a very unlikely… Read more »