Sheng Peng
Luke Kunin is a divisive player.
On one hand, the San Jose Sharks traded a 2023 third-round pick and prospect John Leonard for the winger during the most recent NHL Draft.
On the other hand, the analytics hate him:
I think there’s a middle ground here: Kunin has a number of better than “sub-replacement” qualities to his game. But the analytics also point to real shortcomings too.
Let’s start with the good.
Yesterday, we touched on his underrated scoring ability.
“According to Evolving Hockey, Kunin’s 0.95 Goals Per 60 over the last three years is 67th among 412 NHL forwards (1000-plus 5v5 minutes),” I wrote. “That’s a higher goal-scoring rate than Mika Zibanejad, Tomas Hertl, and Jack Eichel, to cherry pick a few names.”
Of course, scoring isn’t Kunin’s calling card – 15 goals in 63 games in 2019-20 is the 24-year-old’s career-high.
But his scoring rates match with industry consensus.
“Sneaky good shot,” an NHL scout told San Jose Hockey Now. “Quick, hard release.”
SPORTLOGiQ noted a couple more areas where Kunin might be able to help the San Jose Sharks.
Last season, Kunin ranked 15th among 283 qualified NHL forwards with 1.04 Deflections Per 20 (50+ power play minutes). He was 80th in Rebounds Recovered on the man advantage.
This suggests that Kunin could have a future as an effective net front power play presence, able to get in the goalie’s eyes and hunt down loose pucks. His previous employers, the Minnesota Wild and Nashville Predators, have used him on PP2 units, and it wouldn’t surprise him if the Sharks did the same.
Kunin is actually looking for his first career NHL power play goal. Chances are, that happens with the San Jose Sharks.
Kunin should also be strong on the forecheck. Per Evolving Hockey, the winger was 18th in the league among 379 qualified forwards with 13.83 Hits Per 60 last year (500+ 5-on-5 minutes).
This is what the San Jose Sharks are hoping to see more of from Kunin:
Kunin (11) powers through Kristian Vesalainen’s (93) pick along the wall, then his forecheck pressure on Josh Morrissey (44) forces a rushed pass. Turnover, Kunin gets in the front of the net, deflection, goal.
In summary, I think Kunin is easily a legitimate top-nine forward below the offensive dots. Good hands, always competes hard, physical, can skate.
“He’s an effective role player with his grit and adequate skill set,” an NHL scout told San Jose Hockey Now.
But of course, as JFreshHockey’s graphic above suggests, Kunin doesn’t do much for the creation or prevention of scoring chances at 5-on-5. Now keep in mind, this doesn’t necessarily make him a “bad” offensive or defensive player. Kunin’s strengths are finishing, compete, physicality, and net front presence. Those are all very useful assets offensively. But you need to line Kunin up with forwards to make up for some of his flaws that don’t necessarily help on the scoring chance side.
Per SPORTLOGiQ, Kunin was 410th among 439 qualified NHL forwards with 2.3 Controlled Zone Entries Per 20 (300+ 5-on-5 minutes) last year. Kunin is not a forward, even with his solid skating, that you want lugging the puck up the ice. Watching tape, he’s a guy that you want to touch the puck and give it up, going up the ice. Or, to dump in on entry. If you’ve got three Luke Kunins on a line, you’re going to have problems moving the puck up the ice.
Even in the offensive zone, where Kunin’s attributes are more apparent, he still isn’t a forward that you necessarily want with the puck for too long – that is, until there’s a scoring chance to finish.
According to SPORTLOGiQ, Kunin was 432nd in the league with 0:14 OZ Possession Time Per 20 at 5-on-5. He was also 383rd among all qualified forwards with a 28.0 percent OZ Turnover Rate.
Essentially, Kunin is a forward who gives up the puck once he gets it – which is okay, but his turnover rate suggests that he still has room to grow in terms of better decision-making when he surrenders it.
The same NHL executive spoke to that decision-making: “His hockey sense is low-end for the NHL and is probably the hardest thing to see from some video. That’s the big knock on him.”
These flaws might explain Kunin’s poor scoring chance impacts. Offensively and defensively, he can be decent positionally, and he always competes hard – he’s also 61st among all NHL forwards with 0.82 Blocked Shots Per 20 – but he needs to be better with the puck.
Let’s keep in mind too, these stats, the poor EV Offense and Defense percentiles in the graphic, don’t come close to fully reflecting Kunin’s linemates’ effect on those numbers. Basically, don’t blame just Kunin for those impacts, and don’t take them as catch-all numbers for a player’s value.
Otherwise, Rudolfs Balcers, for example, would be seen around the league as a far more valuable forward – and he isn’t.
Kunin just re-signed for two years, $5.5 million dollars this off-season. Meanwhile, the San Jose Sharks were buying out Balcers, due to make just $1.55 million dollars this coming year, and the Florida Panthers took a flyer on him at the veteran’s minimum.
Anyway, the larger point: Kunin is a flawed forward, for sure, but he also has a handful of strong attributes that make him a compelling puzzle piece in a top-nine role, as long as you can fit the right pieces around him.
In fact, Kunin might have a chance for better than a top-nine job with the Sharks, who are shallow in top-six forwards.
“He can still play there,” an NHL scout said of Kunin in the top-six. “Wouldn’t say it’s ideal, but he’s capable of complementing.”
We’ll see if the 24-year-old winger can make the most of his incoming opportunities.